Popularity =/= NPV share. His favorability was at 38.7% when he won 46.1% of the NPV.
Sure, comparisons to his 2016 favorability will be relevant if he draws another opponent as unpopular as he is or manages to drag them down to his level, which depending on the candidate, will not be that easy.
Popularity/approvals/favorables still matter. It's just that 2016 taught us that when you pit two candidates against each other who are about as unpopular as the other, the one that is slightly more popular is not guaranteed to win.
They really weren’t that close though. Hillary got much closer to her favorability in terms of NPV than Trump did. Trump won like 70% of those who disapproved of them both.
