2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[UncleSam]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

[UncleSam]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

[UncleSam]

CA-50: SurveyUSA, Aug. 22-26, 539 likely voters

Duncan Hunter (R, inc) 47
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) 39

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But Atlas told me Hunter was doomed because people care about Republican scandals!

Well, the large difference in margin with Hunter vs. without him indicates that quite a few voters do care.  Just not enough of them to overcome the R advantage in this district.

It is a difference of 3 or 4 percent. Something like 1 out of every 25 or 1 out of every 33 voters is not really "quite a few" voters - it is a pitifully small number of voters. It is not surprising that it is so pitifully small, but it is what it is.

Why should someone from either party vote for a candidate of the opposite party, who holds none of their views on governance and will therefore vote for policies against their interests or beliefs, because of a personal scandal? It’s silly that as many people care as apparently do, just as any Democrat who votes against Menendez is being silly in NJ this year.

The time to sort out scandals etc is in the primary. Once you get to a general election, you vote for the person who most closely represents your interests, period. It is not ‘sad’ or ‘pitiful’ when a person of any background or belief system does this.

[UncleSam]

While it is true that there is probably a social desirability bias at play against the GOP, it is also true that the enthusiasm gap has typically predicted over performance vs the polls. I see no good reason to assume the GOP will outperform polls come November (though I think their odds of underperforming the polls are somewhat lower than most on this forum believe).