State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[UncleSam]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

[UncleSam]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Pretty sure it’s already been happening

[UncleSam]

Dems should allow Felder to stay with them imo. He is more likely to vote with them that way and it's not like they'll need him to gain a majority come November either way. They can't beat him in his district so what would you rather have, someone who votes with you 70% of the time or 30% of the time and votes for the other party for the majority either way. Official party label has been shown to have a large impact on voting - the members of your party try to bend over backwards to vote with you or at least tell you what they need to vote with you, especially on big legislation. While the Dems won't need him come November, I don't see why they would alienate him just to sate their own egos.

[UncleSam]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

[UncleSam]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

It won't make it smaller since Felder caucuses with the GOP anyway.

No, when Dems pick up the senate in November he would’ve switched. It does make it smaller.

And no, he isn’t going to lose lol. I don’t think you know what a hot take is OneJ

[UncleSam]

Jacques up 54-46% with 27% in

What was that 27% in 2016 vs the overall result though? I guess it’s probably hard to get that information but it’s hard to say what that means at this point.

What was the overall district result in 2016 btw, at the presidential level?

[UncleSam]

The takeaway from CT is clear: if you want to flip a PVI+11 seat from the opposing party, nominate someone named Bizzarro.