Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[UncleSam]

Idk how many times I have to say this but Trump's negative number is NOT the ceiling it is for most candidates. On Election Day 2016 he had a 61% disapproval rating in Wisconsin, but won almost 20% of those who disapproved of him.

It is not valid to cite disapprovals as baked in voters against Trump. There are literally millions of people who openly hate him but would vote for him given almost any excuse or flaw in a Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he will win 20% of those who disapprove of him again in any state, but he may well win 5-10%. And if you give him the undecided voters in such a generous manner (I think you shouldn't, depending on the opposition), then he wins easily when taking that plus third party votes into account based on your map.

Again, however, the key is to win over voters who are undecided on Trump or even who marginally approve of him, while holding almost everyone who disapproves of him. You can't limit yourself just to those who dislike him and tack on a few token undecided voters and expect to get anything beyond a Hillary coalition.

[UncleSam]

I mean Rasmussen is probably just using a 2014 turnout model in 2018 lol

Obviously Trump's approval will be higher among RV than among adults, frankly ones polling adults are basically garbage since the population of 'adults' decides absolutely nothing in this country. LV is ultimately all that matters but we don't have a good sense yet of actual LV, so RV is quite reasonable as of now.

In any case, fluctuations up and down don't really mean a whole lot on a day to day basis. It'll be more important where he is in the fall when these things actually start to shape the races.

[UncleSam]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among RV:


Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

What?!?  It's really that bad?  

His strongly disapprove numbers are much higher than strongly approve in almost all polls.

Even among republican voters? That's incredibly suprising. I wonder what Obama's peak strongly disapprove among democrats was.

Ah, I think I see the misinterpretation here.  "RV" is forum shorthand for registered voters.  Were you interpreting it as Republican voters?

EDIT: here's the breakdown by party ID from that SurveyMonkey poll (strongly approve / somewhat approve / somewhat disapprove / strongly disapprove):

Republican: 62/26/6/5
Lean R: 53/34/9/4
Independent: 11/26/23/37
Lean D: 1/6/16/76
Democrat: 4/7/14/73

The most interesting thing about those numbers is that Lean D actually gives Trump worse approvals across the board vs. straight Democrats. That indicates that Trump is pushing independents and potentially some moderate Rs who strongly disapprove of the president to identify as Lean D - they don’t like the Democrats or thinking of themselves as such, but they’re perhaps resigning themselves to admitting they lean towards the Democrats due to Trump. Actual Democrats meanwhile are the same group they’ve always been, and there are some WWC / union types who like Trump but still vote D down ballot (though this group has become much smaller in recent years, as those voters have largely started to vote R at all levels).

[UncleSam]

New Morning Consult poll:

44% of registered voters approve of Trump, while 51% disapprove of him.

48% plurality support “zero tolerance” policy, while 45% oppose it.[/b]

https://morningconsult.com/2018/06/22/trump-approval-virtually-unchanged-amid-child-separation-policy/

ASYLUM. IS. NOT. A. CRIME.

It is literally against the law to harbor those who cross our border illegally and without respect for our legal immigration process. How in the world is breaking the law not a crime?

You can argue that it shouldn’t be a crime. You can argue that the law is heartless, that it should be changed, that it was created by evil white men who were scared of the browning of America. But that won’t change the fact it is the law, and that there are a plurality if Americans who feel it should remain the law. Your statement is false.