UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,525
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« on: November 27, 2017, 06:47:22 PM » |
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Can someone explain to me why Trump NEEDS to be above 45% approval in (presumably) Gallup etc. to win? First, this is not his approval among Likely Voters, who by the way are the ones who elect the president, and second, (as you waved away but didn't explain why you waved it away) he was SIGNIFICANTLY less popular on the day he got elected president then he is today among Likely Voters.
Yes, he will not have the good fortune to run against Hillary Clinton again. His opponent also probably won't outspend him 2:1 and have the benefit of the full throated endorsement of multiple (popular) past presidents campaigning for him or her, while no serious campaigners help Trump aside from his VP.
Being establishment was a problem for Hillary in some ways, but was a boom in others. Far too often people assume that an outsider will just automatically inherit Hillary's strengths as a candidate while magically retaining none of her weaknesses. The Democrats will not have the luxury of running Generic D for president in 2020, and every potential candidate has issues of one sort or another, because no one can appeal to everyone at the same time (though Obama came close in 2008).
And no, Mark Cuban is not likely to endorse Donald Trump, because this would cause him to take a significant hit in the view of many as an 'independent' voice. I do think he is likely to vote for Trump though.
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