Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018?

[UncleSam]

Lol it is definitely not 40%, Republicans have 241 seats right now, incumbency is a huge advantage, and GOP control of state legislatures combined with the fact GOP voters are more spread out make the house tilt heavily right in any ordinary year. Trump would have to be disastrously unpopular for the GOP to lose the house. Not impossible by any stretch (though his base loves him so far and the fact liberals hate him really doesn't help Democrats at all in lean R districts they need to win the house) but not likely at all. 10-20%.

Gains are probably around 60-80% though for the Democrats, there's a half dozen California seats they can threaten quite easily and a handful of others they ought to be able to pick up in a neutral environment. 50th percentile result is probably D+10 in the house imo.