NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine the vibes around this poll wouldn’t be nearly as terrible if not for the Michigan Trump+7.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think the Michigan polling may be due to disillusioned Gaza voters selecting Trump in protest in the RV H2H, but going 3rd Party in the multi-candidate field and dropping out of the LV screen. I imagine most will stay home and the ones who do show up are more likely to go 3P than Trump.

Crosstabs also show Trump’s MI lead in the H2H is powered by 2020 nonvoters rather than defections from Biden 2020 voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

[Tekken_Guy]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

He could lose but it’s not a done deal he will lose.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

It might be the Michigan RV topline which is bad for Biden and a vast outlier from even the other MI polls in the ballot test.

[Tekken_Guy]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

The crosstabs among Black, Hispanic, and young voters are suspicious, but Trump's gains are always going to come from those groups. He was never going to gain among educated White voters and only slightly among non-college educated Whites. So either you believe the overall picture in polling showing severe erosion for Biden among those groups, or you don't and will conclude that Biden will win.

Maybe it’s a mix of both, where his losses with minorities will cause him issues in the sun belt yet he’ll be bailed out by the rust belt.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

No it’s not, because Biden is still competitive in the rust belt.

[Tekken_Guy]

Have to wonder if the ANZAC nations' politics are less cooked than the rest of the Anglosphere

For the last time, there is little to indicate Trump is a heavy favorite because he hasn’t solidified his position in the rust belt.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unpopular opinion, these are not bad polls for Biden.

The NYT polls and the 2 and 5 way averages all show the tipping point state currently around Trump 1-3 points. Of course team Biden would prefer it was the other way around but the polling does not show the disaster some are making it out to be.

Yeah as I said most of the dooming is because of the H2H RV polls due to the catastrophic Michigan number there, even though every other MI poll shows a dead heat a la PA/WI.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

Trump hasn’t really broken through in rust belt polling like he has in the sun belt. He has marginal leads at best in the three states and if Biden can sweep the trio he wins.

Earlier this year it was a bit different because Trump was often getting comfy leads in MI that we haven’t seen that much of lately.

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like TRUMP has a significant lead in Michigan.

Only in the LV H2H, Trump only leads by 2 in the 5-way and Biden leads both LV ballot tests.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

The polling averages have Trump up in all 3 and Biden needs all 3 three and NE-2. He at present is less than a coin flip in each one.

The chance of a coin landing on heads 3 straight times is 12.5%. Now if the states were actually true 50/50 chances Biden's odds would be better than that as there would be some correlation, but it still wouldn't reach 50%.

There is a chance that the polls are underestimating Biden, but there is at least an equal chance they are underestimating Trump (they have underestimated him in two straight elections). The margin of error works both ways.

That is not to mention that there is some polling showing that VA may be at risk. And if the Sunbelt numbers are accurate NM may be at risk as well. If Trump wins either he does not need the three rust belt swing states

Well the rust belt trio doesn’t move independent of each other. If Trump wins one of the three, that’s good for his chances in the other two, and vice versa.

[Tekken_Guy]

Republicans have taken the lead on the ElectionBettingOdds.com party winner market.

Trump has also doubled his lead over Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

Look, I'm open to changing my mind, but I'm not seeing much that does right now.

Sorry, the race will remain a toss-up in my books unless Trump can lock down that 269th electoral vote, and he hasn’t done that in any rust belt state or NE-02 at the moment.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just a reminder that this is now the most replied topic in this sub-forum.