Yeah, tell me how Trump is favored in Michigan with the GOP as crazy as they are.
Even if Trump doesn't add any new voters which is extremely unlikely, the amount of Muslims and young people that might abstain would be enough to flip the state.
Muslims make 1% of the electorate an an even smaller % of Biden’s margin. Also Biden’s gains with suburbanites should counter his issues with young folks.
I think Biden is favored in Michigan in ways that the polls aren't really indicating, or at least that the polls a few weeks to a few months ago weren't, but the word "should" is doing a lot of work there, and if that 1% of the electorate went heavily for Biden last time (which it did), it makes up a much bigger part of his margin, not an even smaller one.
He didn’t win all of them though, and it’s unlikely Trump outright wins the group, so the swing on his margin from it will likely be like 0.5%.