Rate Starr County, TX

[Tekken_Guy]

It could range from Biden +50 to Trump +30 tbh.

This but less extreme. Total wild card. It's no Elliott where the swing is very clearly and obviously pointed in one direction; as others have noted, it's reverted a little bit since 2020.

Elliott seemed to be reverting somewhat for a bit. Dems won it in multiple state legislative special elections during the Trump Presidency, and also won it in every 2019 statewide race.

At a federal level, though, it was consistently trending rightward (for instance 2020 marked the first election McConnell managed to win Elliott).

Right, but the previous poster was talking about during Trump's presidency. Hell, I thought McConnell would lose it precisely because all of the statewide Dems won it in 2019.

Yeah, but what I'm saying is 2019 is meaningless because it was state-level elections in an off-year. Had there been a 2018 senate election in KY, the results for Elliott there would have been far more illuminating. As things are, the only non-presidential federal races we have to go off are the 2016 and 2020 Senate elections; Elliott swung hard right from the previous cycle in both.

Jim Gray actually won Elliott County by a tad bit more than Alison Grimes in 2014.
Also if Kentucky had a US Senate race in 2018, I stand by a view that Elliott probably goes Dem.

Hal Rogers won Elliott for the first time in 2018.