2024 County Ratings?

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's mine; may adjust closer to the election and tended to ere on the side of caution. Let me know if you spot any obvious errors.

-Why is Monmouth County, NJ Lean but Hunterdon only Tilt?
-Why is Trump the favorite in Atlantic and Cumberland Counties?
-Why is Trump favored in Pueblo County, CO?
-Why is Erie County, PA Tilt R yet Northampton Lean D?
-Why is Suffolk County lean R yet the other three narrow Trump counties in NY (Orange, Warren, Ontario) all Tilt D?
-Why is Duval at Lean D yet Hillsborough/Osceola/Seminole Tilt?
-Why is Fresno Tilt D?
-Why is Platte County MO more favorable to Dems than Clay?

[Tekken_Guy]

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

[Tekken_Guy]

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

Biden did poorly in the 2022 primary here only getting 67% (albeit turnout was quite low). I think at the time of making this map the recently bias of the primary is what pushed it to Lean Trump for me.

Another factor is that Northfield's sphere of influence is pretty small and you have the Faribault area (not a college town) being roughly half the county's population, so Northfield's influence isn't absolute.

Dems generally did pretty well here in 2022 though.

Perhaps Lean R was an overreaction to Biden's poor primary performance, but I want to investigate further as to what exactly caused Biden to do poorly here - not tons of ancesteral Dems nor a large Arab population.

Student protest votes perhaps?

[Tekken_Guy]

El Paso County is a strong Likely R.

Douglas County is lean R.

Polis 2022 is NOT a baseline. Like at all. A fiscally moderate Democratic governor who rallied against covid measures and illegal immigration and has no scandals was going to win over a significant number of Republican leaning voters. Even in the GOP leaning of 2022.

Fair point on Polis, but generally these counties have been zooming left and seem like good demographic fits for Biden 2024, especially Douglas which is 60% college educated, and rapidly seeing growth of D-leaning Denver suburbs into the County. Douglas would be one of the few places of CO I could easily see Biden 2024 outrunning Polis, simillar to how Biden outran Beto 2018 in Collin County.

Douglas is the fastest-left trending in Colorado and I could easily see Biden winning it even though Polis lost it. Also why CO-04 could be in play by the end of the decade if Boebert is still around.