CO-04: Ken Buck to resign next week.

[Tekken_Guy]

Imagine that in 2010 this guy was considered an extremist's extremist and by now he has become almost a Rockefeller Republican in Trump's party.

I know Ken Buck personally. He's mostly just interested in favorable press coverage. And he still mostly votes for harm over harm reduction.

Controversially, I think even Boebert would be a step up for this district. At least her fascist principles are about principle and not personal achievement. And at least she thinks she's one of the people, not some Yale-educated elite above them.

But boy do I miss the days of Betsy Markey....

Boebert and principles don’t belong in the same sentence.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1767642420714295774

I get Sonnenberg but I don’t see why Flora would be his main competition for the convention.

From what I can tell she’s pretty MAGA-aligned too.

[Tekken_Guy]

We are in the midst of a purge where non-MAGA Republicans likely get replaced with MAGA Republicans. Trump's family has just taken over the RNC. The GOP is dead.

To be fair I think Colorado is more of an exception than the rule. Joe O’Dea, one of the “normal ones” won his primary over a MAGA freak.

It’s likely, but not a guarantee. She’s already drafted an incumbent in an upset once, though she had less baggage then.

CO-04 is a far more establishment-friendly district than CO-03. CO-04 contains large suburbs and exurbs of Denver. CO-03 is just a bunch of small working-class towns and rurals.

[Tekken_Guy]

The filing deadline for the regular primary is one week from today (Mar 19), before Buck officially resigns.

So actually it doesn't matter who wins the special, because they can't run in the primary for the November one ?

No, the chosen candidate will almost certainly be one who has already filed.

So Ken Buck's gamble is:

1.Select an anti-Boebert candidate from the primary shortlist for the special.

2.Hold the special before June's regular primary, in the hope that the anti-Boebert candidate beats Boebert.

I'm I right ?

The special is almost certain to be on the same day/ballot as the June primary. The Republican candidate for the special while not technically the incumbent will be viewed as such by many voters.

So there's a lot of scope for Buck's plan to fail.

Not really. This is more about consolidating the anti-Boebert vote than flipping voters who might have otherwise considered her.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t think this will be quite as simple to oust Boebert from Congress as some are claiming. Not sure how his district feels about Buck’s anti-MAGA bent. If it’s widely seen as an out-the-door RINO taking shots at a MAGA candidate, it could easily build sympathy for Boebert. I mean,  the plan is relying on some relatively unknown (members) committee to anoint someone not Boebert, which creates confusion. Yet Trump seems to have already endorsed Boebert and presumably will help her still. So we’re hoping the ballot itself will be confusing enough so that Trump’s endorsement is second fiddle?

It’s a nice FY from Buck. I’m not sure it’s an effective strategy. Maybe slightly more than before (w/o special).

The thing is that the district itself may be relatively anti-MAGA because of Douglas County, and that Boebert’s baggage would make her underperform the baseline of a Trump-backed candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/jesseapaul/status/1771200892571713940

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Lopez is running as a placeholder candidate. He’s a far-right stop the steal conspiracy theorist and is probably a stalking horse for Boebert.

Really hoping Lopez loses the convention.

[Tekken_Guy]

The convention started two hours ago, and shockingly, nobody is talking about it. Nothing much so far, but one one outrageous development happened.

Chris Phelen, one of the minor candidates running for the seat, agreed to make a deal drop out of the race. That he’d leave the race for the full term if he lost the convention, right?

Nope, he said he’s going to leave if he WON the nomination. He had a chance at a a lifetime career in politics and he chose to threw it away because he felt the whole clown car should get a chance.

This is like Joe Sempolinski not jumping into the NY-23 race for a full term once Chris Jacobs retired, and as a result we almost got congressman Carl Paladino.

The worst part is his comments: “I’m not a placeholder. I’m a fighter.”  Yeah he’s not a fighter if he plans to give up after six months.

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773494359071101430?s=61&t=J4ObZwLKKSzX8w...

[Tekken_Guy]

Voting in 2nd Round for CD4 special election:
Peter Yu 0
Mike Lynch 10
Scott Melby 4
Chris Phelen 4
Floyd Trujillo 0
Richard Holtorf 13
Ted Harvey 27
Jerry Sonnenberg 23
Greg Lopez 17
Total delegates voting 98

https://twitter.com/TheRMVoice/status/1773533082122891574

A little concerned about that big gain for Lopez. Melbye/Phelen/Trujillo/Yu are out.

[Tekken_Guy]

Results after 3rd round of voting in #CO04 GOP convention:

Greg Lopez 27
Ted Harvey 24
Jerry Sonnenberg 24
Richard Holtorf 16
Mike Lynch 7

98 ballots cast, so takes 50 for the required majority to nominate a candidate to run in special election for Ken Buck's seat

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1773548746741026907

Oh no. I hope the Lopez surge stops now that we get to the serious candidates.

[Tekken_Guy]

Round 4:
Lopez (place holder candidate) - 34
Harvey - 26
Sonnenberg - 24
Holtorf - 14

Holtorf goes to the mic and throws his support behind Lopez, the placeholder candidate. #copolitics

https://twitter.com/caitlynkim/status/1773555163787149549

Looks like a good night for Boebert.

Harvey+Sonnenberg still have two more votes than Lopez and Holtorf.

[Tekken_Guy]

Good for Boebert.

[Tekken_Guy]

F**k this. Awful.

Boebert is not that bad honestly. She has become a lot more quiet after her 2022 scare. I'd rather get rid of MTG than her.

It’s worse because Boebert is representing Douglas County which is the best part of Colorado IMO. This is like MTG suddenly representing East Cobb.

[Tekken_Guy]

F**k this. Awful.

Boebert is not that bad honestly. She has become a lot more quiet after her 2022 scare. I'd rather get rid of MTG than her.

It’s worse because Boebert is representing Douglas County which is the best part of Colorado IMO. This is like MTG suddenly representing East Cobb.

How are Douglas county and East Cobb the best part of their respective states. Its just miles and miles of ugly suburban sprawl.

I love Ugly Suburban Sprawl.

[Tekken_Guy]

Good for Boebert.

I'm not surprised Buck's complicated plan is failing, too many moving parts.

I doubt all of Lopez’s final round supporters are Boebert fans. The 12 in the first round probably were the true Boebert believers while the ones who hopped on later were guys who had a stake in the other eliminated candidates (Holtorf, Lynch, etc.) The big mystery are the 6 Harvey supporters in the penultimate round who defied his call to vote Sonnenberg.

[Tekken_Guy]

That being said I still think Boebert loses her primary, since we’re back to where we were before Buck resigned but after the Trump endorsement, and I still had her as an underdog even then.

Boebert faces the exact same problem Madison Cawthorn had. GOP primary voters are getting tired of her antics. It’s the same reason Cori Bush is in trouble.

[Tekken_Guy]

W Boebert!!!

I think congress would be better off without Boebert in it. People like her and MTG make the body ungovernable.

Also it won’t be as easy as you think. Color me skeptical she wins that primary. She seems like another Madison Cawthorn where Trump can’t bail her out no matter how hard he tries.

[Tekken_Guy]

Have democrats nominated anyone yet?

They do on Monday I believe.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://coloradosun.com/2024/04/05/lauren-boebert-4th-congressional-district/

PUEBLO — U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert’s name will be first on the June 25 Republican primary ballot in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District after she won the district’s GOP nominating assembly Friday.

Boebert won 41% of the delegate vote, enough to prevent former state Sen. Ted Harvey of Highlands Ranch from appearing on the ballot. He received about 26% of the delegate vote, but needed 30% to make the ballot.

Trumpy candidates always overperform at the assembly so this is a highwater marker for Boebert. She likely has no path to 50% in the primary and will be lucky to crack 40%.

With Harvey out, unless Lynch proves to be stronger than anticipated, Sonnenberg’s the only major candidate left in the establishment lane, which is good news for him in a district O’Dea won by 10 points in the 2022 primary. Meanwhile Holtorf and Flora will be mostly siphoning MAGA votes away from Boebert.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wouldn’t count out Boebert yet. Yes, she didn’t clear 50. But she did eliminate her worst competition in DougCo. In a low turnout primary, she can still make it through.

Also forgot that I have gotta disagree with Tekken Guy. Douglas Co. isn’t even the best suburb. That’s Jeffco. And not just cuz the politics. Everything in dougco is a big chain store and it’s just boring

Harvey was Sonnenberg’s biggest competition for Douglas County votes, if anything. He was running as the main establishment guy for Douglas’s suburban votes and without him Sonnenberg is the only major candidate left in that lane (unless you count Lynch). Flora is the one who’s getting all the MAGA votes in Douglas that aren’t going Boebert, and she’s still in the race, plus there’s Holtorf who’s a threat to her in the eastern rurals.

Also Boebert would do best in a high turnout primary when low information Trump voters in the rurals come out in droves and unfortunately for her the presidential primary in CO was in March. Low turnout means more weight to Douglas suburbanites and thus Sonnenberg.