MI: Trump +2, +3 (Emerson)

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the same lead he has in PA, which is way more realistic than Trump+5 MI, Biden+1 PA.

[Tekken_Guy]

Emerson swung 4 points to Trump.  

It also came in line with the Morning Consult Poll that has Trump winning MI with over 75% of the vote.  

They swung 4 points away from Trump. It was Trump +6 last time

That Trump+6 poll was never published though.

[Tekken_Guy]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

If we’re going by Emerson, Trump is leading in all the other battlegrounds as well by 2 or more points.

[Tekken_Guy]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

If we’re going by Emerson, Trump is leading in all the other battlegrounds as well by 2 or more points.

Yup, but in MI we had other pollsters as well showing Trump ahead. I don't even recall the latest MI poll in which Biden was leading. There were at least a few polls from other battlegrounds since January that had Biden ahead (like in PA).

Every pollster that has done both states has shown Trump up in both and by similar margins. PA’s in-house pollsters (F&M, Susquehanna) seem very favorable for Biden and MI’s (EPIC-MRA, Glengarriff) for Trump.