Predict the margin in each of the following states:

[Tekken_Guy]

- Alaska: R+4
- Iowa: R+9
- Ohio R+6
- Maine's second congressional district: R+4
- Texas: R+2
- Florida: R+5
- North Carolina: D+1
- Georgia: D+2
- Arizona: D+3
- Wisconsin: D+2
- Pennsylvania: D+4
- Nevada: D+2
- Michigan: D+5
- Nebraska's second congressional district: D+12
- Minnesota: D+10
- New Hampshire: D+11
- Maine: D+13
- Virginia: D+14
- New Mexico: D+
- Colorado: D+19
- New Jersey: D+19
- Oregon: D+18
- Illinois: D+19
- Delaware: D+23
- Washington state: D+25

[Tekken_Guy]

I haven't really checked downballot candidates otherwise (or taken into account)

AZ: no effect (mixed bag, Gallego is a good democratic candidate, i suppose whoever the republicans nominate here might not be of help to Trump)

DE: Carper retires, so open, but overall safe enough

FL: I don't think Rick Scott might perform as well as DeSantis & Rubio do, and it's also an election year so maybe the +12 might have been too overestimated. Though Florida might be to the right of OH anyways because of Sherrod Brown on the ballot, but FL probably also has like higher presidential turnout. Depends also on how much resources the D's allocate to it or if they abandon sort of it (if they don't have a good senate candidate, they could as well not focus too much on it)

ME: DK if Angus King has an upballot effect, independent. I suppose there'll be King/Trump voters as well but mostly King/Biden as he caucuses with the Dems. Jared Golden is always of big help though.

MI: Open, so remains to be seen, but important election and the republicans don't really have a bench here and James is gonna stick to the seat he has now.

MN: Klobuchar, yeah that will be helpful to Biden, that seals the deal.

NV: I don't think Jacky Rosen is a very strong candidate, overall neutral effect, but probably again very narrow win, seems like NV might be more risky in an off-year election because 2022 wasn't really that good, though mostly the gubernational ones.

NJ: I don't think people care enough but Menendez isn't great

NM: Heinrich neutral

NY: Gillibrand really is helpful for boosting turnout

OH: Brown being up, means it'll be more contested than it would otherwise, maybe my +12 is too exaggerated but OH doesn't have that thing that in presidential years its more beneficial for the Dems than off-year ones. Though the opposite is no longer true either, ask Tim Ryan.

PA: Casey Jr. definitely of big help. The GOP might need McCormick to be nominated which looks might not be the case. PA in 2022 was horrible for the GOP. Fetterman winning by 5 despite attacks on his illness should've never happened.

TX: Fools gold for now, even though Cruz technically might be vulnerable.

VA: Kaine usually does well in elections

WI: Baldwin is also a good candidate, better than the other candidates i've experienced because she wins her elections and the other candidate usually doesn't. It's gonna be tricky though. WI has been disappointing and Biden only narrowly won it in 2020. Definitely the closest of the three rust belt states i believe.

WV and MT might also shift left tbh because of Manchin & Tester. Even though Manchin is done. Tester will probably be a similar result to Bullock, maybe slightly better. And Brown similar to Ryan but slightly better. In all these examples, the downballot candidates do better than Biden i think.

Peltola helps Biden a lot i think in Alaska, though I do believe given the nature of Alaska and it being split from the mainland and it having its own kind of culture & thing that it is perfectly reasonable to assume Peltola comfortably wins while Trump does as well, though with a large shift to the left.

I do think Trump winning Alaska will be by a more narrow margin than Peltola.

Aside of that, downballot candidates are great for the Dems.

NJ is one of those states that isn't, even compared to VA and NY. Trump probably also keeps NC (no senate election either here).

There are some unknowns though. Like is there split voting in WI. Does Baldwin go down if Trump wins the state. But the state might be close enough that even without much split voting Baldwin could hang on while Trump carries it. Baldwin also was up in 2012 and 2018, two solid years for the Dems (esp. 2018 in WI compared to 2016).

Wouldn’t Mark Robinson on the ballot be a bit of a drag on Trump?

[Tekken_Guy]

Those predictions  have since been changed.

Very well  then. To ... what, though, exactly, if  I may  ask? Thank you very much  in advance  for  your indulgence!

As of now, I give Trump the advantage only because of the potential vote splitting that Cornel West and possibly No Labels can cause. West is getting a lot of media attention and Dems tend to be more open to third parties than GOP, thus allowing third parties to take more votes from Dems than GOP. They may take enough votes to swing states like PA, WI, MI, and GA to hand Trump the election.

Also no problem, anytime!

Cornel West’s campaign was already getting a lot of attention when you first posted your predictions. Why wasn’t Trump favored then?