Reminder: Republicans can still feasibly get 57 Senate Seats in 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

I view this as pretty unlikely and something that would require a national route to knock off that many incumbents on the same night. I view 55 or 56 as possible if it’s a strong night nationally. I’d still argue that this scenario is the same order of likelihood as D’s holding the senate. One requires R’s running the table on battleground states. The other requires D’s winning 4 out of 5 in legitimate red states.

Democrats only need two of FL/MT/OH/TX/WV to hold the Senate. 3 if the presidency flips.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats are in a better position than we thought they'd be last year if 57 Republican seats is the worst case scenario

And even then, 57 requires the GOP to win:

WV
MT
OH

NV
AZ

WI
MI (OPEN)
PA

All. Divided into difficulty tiers by my own estimation though they're not particularly controversial here.

I think Dems have a really solid shot at all three of the bottom tiers. Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey have always overperformed and if WI and PA are roughly even (a safe bet given they're the nation's top swing states) even a relatively modest overperformance puts them both comfortably over. Like, I don't think anyone would be surprised to see PA be Biden +1, Casey +7...and that'd still be Casey's worst performance ever. MI seems to be a step more Dem than those other two in that tier, which maybe evens out with it being an open seat. Besides, who's the GOP gonna run? John James and leave a key House seat open?

Basically, 57 R Senate seats is a feasible best case scenario for the GOP but it'd still require a lot of luck and the GOP doing substantially better than it did in 2016 and Trump winning by the skin of his teeth nationally. Trump romping to victory in an election where he flat out wins the PV is probably the world where this becomes plausible.

If we're assuming a fairly normal national climate, 52-54 R Senate seats strikes me as  the most likely scenario. In a really good Dem night, maybe only 50-51.

What about Dem pickup opportunities? Texas is gonna be a hard lift in a Presidential year (or, frankly, anything other than the midterm of an unpopular GOP President) and Florida seems increasingly off the table but Rick Scott has never been as popular as other Florida Rs. Will Rick Scott win by more than one point for once in his life? We'll see...but I wouldn't bet on him actually losing.

Why is Nevada in a different category than the rust belt trio? I understand the unique situation with AZ, but Rosen is an incumbent after all.

And is Trump really a sure thing to be the nominee? DeSantis is surging and he’ll have bigger coattails on the Senate level, and I think a DeSantis nomination would be accompanied by a stronger senate lineup anyways.

Besides a narrow Trump/DeSantis win only brings 52 or 53 seats. They don’t get anything other than the three pickups in solid R states and maybe AZ depending on Sinema.