GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m. Mathematically, they do exist...but unless the EV simultaneously looked unprecedentedly Democratic yet voted for Walker at much higher than expected levels, it's a hard needle to thread.

Best bet for Walker is a big late day surge, still possible - but agree it looks like a very narrow path if we're at 70-75% of November ED turnout with a few hours to go.

Especially if Dems perform much stronger than usual due to the lines on EV.

[Tekken_Guy]

Like ableism in Pennsylvania, nominating the dumbest man in America was not, it turns out, a winning campaign strategy.

What about nominating a fascist-adjacent Thielite in Arizona?

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

Maybe a reaction to Gordon County?

[Tekken_Guy]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine once once there are no longer popular incumbents running for re-election or a strong top of the ticket to carry over the open races, non-federal statewide races in Georgia are going to start to become nailbiters.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the best possible result for never trump republicans and presidential hopefuls other than Trump. Trump is further weakened by this loss but at the same time, the bottom didn't fall like some where predicting which shows that the state is still winnable (unlike Virginia). Like I previously said, Kemp Vs Ossof 2026 starts out as lean R.

No it does not. Ossoff would be favored because of trends continuing. And I don’t think Kemp will ever actually run for Senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

Not if the AZ GOP nominates some far-right lunatic, and given what happened this year...

In AZ I mean a third party getting the endorsement Howie Hawkins 2014 style.

[Tekken_Guy]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.