Is there any way Democrats could avoid a net loss of senate seats in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

I'd argue that Baldwin has more potential to overperform the top of the ticket than Stabenow.

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

[Tekken_Guy]

Queen Debbie Levin is a MI institution, she ain’t goin’ anywhere

Can she ride a motorcycle, though?

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

I'm not sure Wisconsin will trend more Republican than Michigan, though. I wouldn't expect it to vote more than a couple of points right of Michigan, and that could easily mean Stabenow losing while Baldwin narrowly hangs on. Of course Baldwin isn't safe, but Stabenow is definitely vulnerable as well.

I honestly think Stabenow retires after this term, opening the door for a stronger candidate like Slotkin. I do think Wisconsin is more likely to flip than Michigan at the senate level.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

If Dems lose those states in the Presidential race they are probably losing the White House.

If they lose all three, then probably. But if they hold onto AZ, GA, NE-2 and pick up NC while holding all of the Hillary states, they're at 274. They can afford to lose all 3, and even 1 or 2 gives them a cushion to losing other states.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

Casey can probably survive even if Harris / Biden were to lose PA, as long it remains tight

I agree, but even he probably won't outrun them by much. And if he retires, it could very well flip.