Chief Pollster of Trafalgar Predicts Trump Wins the Election

[Tekken_Guy]

They go on about Florida... Did anyone ask them to explain why they utterly failed in just about every other race in 2018? Or why their prediction that the GOP would hold the House proved laughably wrong?

If you read the article, he claims that they called 2018 96% correctly, and the reason Georgia was so off was because he didn't get a list of new registered voters, which impacted the race. That's what he claims.

Maybe it's because most of the competitive races they polled in just happened to break for Republicans.

[Tekken_Guy]

For the love of all that is holy, there are no shy Trump voters. They're a myth. I mean, seriously: silent Trump supporters? You think the fascists, Nazis, neo-Confederates, bigots, religious lunatics, Klansmen, &/or enablers of all the aforementioned demographics are gonna be silent about that sh*t? Give me a break.

Get real: Trump won in 2016 on the basis of voter apathy & undecideds hating him less than they hated Hillary. That's it. And in case anybody may have forgotten, here's your reminder that neither of those factors are at play this year. Game over.

The only way I could see there being “shy Trump voters” is as a strategic move rather than actually being shy.

[Tekken_Guy]

Somebody said in another thread that there aren't really "shy" Trump voters so much as there are Trump voters who hang up on pollsters because Trump told them they are liars and crooked just like the MSM.

And working for a polling firm, I can confirm this. I'll normally call somebody and ask them if they'd like to participate in a poll about issues in their state/district, and what I find is that the majority of people who support Democrats are very open about sharing information and complete the poll.

On the other hand, I can immediately sense the Trump supporters because as soon as I ask something about participating in a poll they say things like "who's paying for this?" or "who are you affiliated with?". I've had a few say things like "this sounds like fake news" with some assorted cursing, and then they hang up on me. I've heard a LOT of this.

In other words, that social trust gap I've heard about as a theory of why Trump supporters are often hidden....there's probably something to that. They clearly dislike participating in polls. Just fair warning.

By this theory, Trump’s true approval rating has always been much higher than indicated.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

In order for that to pan out, Trump supporters would actually have to answer the polls, say they didn't vote in 2016, voted 3rd party in 2016, or voted for Clinton, but will be voting for Trump come 2020. Right now, we see very few Clinton - Trump voters in polls. If they answered Trump - Trump, they're counted the same as any other Trump supporter, and if they don't answer, the pollster will still end up weighting by 2016 vote share (which if anything, likely lowers Biden's share in the polls since D turnout was bad in 2016 and early vote suggests better news turnout wise). Idk, but I just find it hard to believe enough Trump supporters are doing this to have any meaningful statistical impact on polls that isn't already being corrected

Doesn’t doing that make Trump’s support look stronger than it actually is? I means people who don’t say they vote for Trump or choose to opt out of the survey altogether.