In which states will Trump break 60%? (user search)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  In which states will Trump break 60%? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: In which states (plus congressional districts) will Trump win >=60 of the vote%?
#1
Nebraska-3
 
#2
West Virginia
 
#3
Wyoming
 
#4
Oklahoma
 
#5
North Dakota
 
#6
Kentucky
 
#7
Alabama
 
#8
South Dakota
 
#9
Tennessee
 
#10
Arkansas
 
#11
Idaho
 
#12
Nebraska
 
#13
Louisiana
 
#14
Mississippi
 
#15
Indiana
 
#16
Missouri
 
#17
Kansas
 
#18
Nebraska-1
 
#19
Montana
 
#20
South Carolina
 
#21
Texas
 
#22
Ohio
 
#23
Alaska
 
#24
Maine-2
 
#25
Iowa
 
#26
Georgia
 
#27
Other state(s)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 27

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Author Topic: In which states will Trump break 60%?  (Read 559 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 01, 2020, 10:41:37 PM »

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.
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Tekken_Guy
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Posts: 13,251
United States


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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 11:25:50 PM »

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.

I still think Trump will clear 60% in Oklahoma and Arkansas, even if he loses Oklahoma County in the former. Biden would probably be able to get to as high as 35% if he carries Oklahoma County-as polls suggest that he may, but I struggle to see him reaching anything higher than that. Arkansas gave Trump the exact same percentage as Mitt Romney in 2012, and the leftward trends in Pulaski and Washington Counties probably won't be enough to drop him below the 60% mark.

As for Alabama, Biden could hit 40%, but it is unlikely. Walt Maddox was able to reach the 40% mark in 2018 by narrowly winning Tuscaloosa County, winning Jefferson County by 18%, obtaining a third of the vote in Shelby County, and coming within single digits in Madison and Mobile Counties. Biden certainly will not carry Tuscaloosa (Maddox was the "native son" of the county, having been Mayor of Tuscaloosa), and I don't think he'll come within single digits in Madison and Mobile. For these reasons, I think Trump will still clear 60% in Alabama.

I think all will still be in the upper 50s, alongside Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Tennessee. Mid-50s will include Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, NE-1, and Utah. Lower 50s will be Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina.

I see an upper-single digit PV win for Biden right now.
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