2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

Maybe NC-9 is a better comparison. It barely changed in redistricting, and McCready isn’t running again. If Balderson is safe, so is Bishop.

[Tekken_Guy]

Aug and Oct, we will see if GOP chances go up with Trump and his approvals.  Whomever party wins in Nov, they will get the Trifecta

The GOP have like 10 realistic pickup opportunities in the House. It’s doubtful they win it.

[Tekken_Guy]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Guys like Collin Peterson and Matt Cartwright ran well ahead of Trump in their races. They may like them as an independent brand. Many may not like Trump but would reluctantly vote for him. Trump will likely be winning Iowa by at least 7 points if Finkenauer is losing.

[Tekken_Guy]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Guys like Collin Peterson and Matt Cartwright ran well ahead of Trump in their races. They may like them as an independent brand. Many may not like Trump but would reluctantly vote for him. Trump will likely be winning Iowa by at least 7 points if Finkenauer is losing.

Or you must mean that they ran well ahead of Clinton? And Peterson, remember, was the only House Democrat to vote against every element of impeachment-the inquiry, both articles, and the transmission of those articles to the Senate. I can understand Trump voters opting to reelect him, but not any other Democrat in a district Trump will almost certainly win again.

Yeah, but Matt Cartwright voted for impeachment in a district Trump won by 9 points. He’s favored to win re-election still.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

Is it because of the virus?

[Tekken_Guy]

Iowa -- IA-01, IA-02, IA-03
Upstate NY -- NY-22, NY-24
NYC -- NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11
Dallas -- TX-24, TX-32
Houston -- TX-07, TX-22
Albuquerque/El Paso -- NM-02, TX-23
Miami -- FL-26, FL-27
Minnesota -- MN-01, MN-07
LA -- CA-25, CA-48
Salt Lake City -- UT-04
Charleston/Savannah -- SC-01
Oklahoma City -- OK-05
Philadelphia -- NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
Hampton Roads -- VA-02
Atlanta -- GA-06, GA-07
Champaign/St. Louis -- IL-13, MO-02
Las Vegas -- NV-03
Cincinnati -- OH-01
Richmond-- VA-07
Omaha -- NE-02
Montana -- MT-AL
Detroit -- MI-08
Bakersfield/Fresno -- CA-21
Harrisburg -- PA-10
Maine -- ME-02

[Tekken_Guy]

UT-04 and IL-13 are weird, esp considering we just got that poll with Londrigan up against Davis.

And McAdams has a ton more $$$ in UT-04 too, and the suburbs ain't getting any redder.

College closures will probably help Rodney Davis. According to the DCCC, Londrigan blames her 2018 loss on “unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign“. The article notes that “Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.”

Sabato, Daily Kos, and Inside Elections rate this district Tilt/Lean R, so it’s not that surprising.

UT-04 really is weird though. I think it’s Lean D.

From what I know, most students tend to vote from their homes, not their college precincts. There does seem to be some fear but a lack of concrete evidence supporting this.

I think the Massachusetts Dem Primary will give us a barometer as to how online schooling will effect the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

It seems like more of an outlier. A lot of people may be afraid that a check on Biden could end up as unchecked power for Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

He needs to wait until 2024 to retire so Dems have a better chance of holding his seat.

He can retire in 2022 and it will give Dems an opportunity for a Eugene/Corvallis vote sink.  Skarlatos can easily pick up a SW Oregon seat without those college counties in it.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m thinking a good night for Republicans is one where they keep losses to single digits in the House. If things stay the same and are on the current trajectory, I’m looking at around +15-20 for Democrats, possibly more. That’s the high end of what IE is predicting, but I think the suburbs are going to turn in a nasty result for Republicans down-ballot. One of the big questions is going to be whether the incoming Democratic Majority in the House is bigger than the one after the 2008 election.

A "good night" for Republicans involves beating incumbents not named Collin Peterson.