The next Wisconsin? (user search)
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  The next Wisconsin? (search mode)
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Author Topic: The next Wisconsin?  (Read 1316 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: September 10, 2017, 12:16:40 AM »

Moving right, I don't see that many examples. Trump doesn't seem to be attracting any new supporters since his election. He's pushing more people out of the GOP than pulling in. Beyond that, demographic changes are very much in the Democrats' favor: Boomers, Silents, and GIs dying off, Millennials and GZers taking over, and increasing diversity.

I do, however, see North Carolina and Georgia going in the direction of Virginia, and Texas and Arizona going in the direction of Colorado. Leftward turns in the suburbs of the biggest cities (NoVa, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix) and booming super-liberal cities (Richmond, Raleigh, Austin, San Antonio, Boulder, Tucson) plus growing minorities (mainly blacks in VA/NC/GA and hispanics in TX/CO/AZ) and liberal snowbirds coming from the northeast and midwest.

I see the democrats winning back all the Obama/Trump states (except for Iowa) and gaining NC, GA, AZ, TX, and NE-2. In a super landslide, they'll get IA back and take IN, MO, SC, KS, and MT.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2017, 06:32:21 AM »

It looks like Trump is pushing people out of the GOP entirely. If the GOP shifts towards Trumpism they'll be alienating many college-educated whites. Kind of like the suburban flight to the Democrats that followed after the Evangelical Conservative takeover of the party. If they moderate they could win people back, but if they go in a Trump-ish direction they'll be in deep trouble.
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