Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[brucejoel99]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

I personally believe this to be true. What's the problem? Effectively China gave Ukraine several more weeks to prepare for the invasion. It's not China's fault Ukraine didn't do enough with the time to prepare for war and instead spent most of it denying that war would even happen.

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[brucejoel99]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

I personally believe this to be true. What's the problem? Effectively China gave Ukraine several more weeks to prepare for the invasion. It's not China's fault Ukraine didn't do enough with the time to prepare for war and instead spent most of it denying that war would even happen.

E       E       E
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This is nonsensical, what exactly is there to cope about here? You type illogical things yet get approval because "hurr durr China bad"?

That you're a fringe extremist who's been acting like they're in denial about their views being broadly unsupported by the vast majority of free people? Not exactly that hard to understand, but I'll forgive you for not noticing immediately, since you must work so hard to stay updated with any & all of the latest CCP propaganda that your brain must just be scattered.

(And yes, China is bad. They engage in some of the most objectively f**ked-up sh*t. We're tired of your excessively weird support for the CCP, & evident inability to perceive the social cues that'd be necessary for you to actually understand us in making clear that we're tired of it, we don't support you, & we just want you to shut up because it's so old by now.)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1499130395509411841

That's a big f***ing boat.

Hopefully, the Germans confiscated it for legitimate reasons such as this oligarch's sanctioned Russian connections & not just because they may or may not be secretly covering-up ongoing great white shark attacks in a Baltic coastal resort town & nothing that they've been throwing at the shark to kill it has been working, so now they're gonna need a bigger boat. (Sorry, couldn't help but try to lighten the mood a bit if at all possible, even if just for a moment)

[brucejoel99]

Who here still genuinely thinks letting Russia do whatever they want in Ukraine and hoping sanctions work is the best option?

Goddamnit I’m going to sound like Sam F***ing Spade here but I ran across something on Twitter and…we’re not just letting Russia do what they want in Ukraine…but specifying more is actually dangerous in real life to…those involved…

Link? (Unless classified info that's gonna harm lives if leaked has somehow been published on Twitter, in which case, obviously please don't.)

[brucejoel99]

Bear with me a bit here -
Could the Russians be allowing the flames in the Zaporizhzhia complex spread unabated until they know it won't be operational, so that Ukraine will be more reliant on Russian natural gas and oil?

I think that the U.S. would sooner fully subsidize the linking of Ukraine's electrical grid with that of the EU's than we would allow a non-puppet Ukraine to be forced into future reliance on Russian natural gas & oil (not that the EU would need us to cover their costs in this scenario, given that Europe is now finally on-board with being as fully anti-Putin as us).

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

Thank you. So the ICC as a grand jury can conduct a hearing without the defendant and issue an arrest warrant I take it. I was actually pondering the issues in my head last night. Is that what happened to Miloslovic?

Yes, but Milošević's case was handled by the ICTY, an ad-hoc but otherwise ICC-like tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

[brucejoel99]

Just paint Ukrainian flags on NATO fighters, fly them in, & white-knuckle our way through praying Russia never finds out

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500167936203534339

Something of note that I read about earlier (I wish I still had the link on me right now): one of the more unexpected problems for the Russians has been, of all things, tires. Many, if not most of their vehicles were stored poorly, so their tires dried-out & cracked, meaning that they're now not holding up to such heavy usage, & not only is this a simple problem to diagnose, but it's a hard-as-hell one to resolve, but that's what happens when you perpetually underfund garrison units in favor of blowing all of your money on new high-end equipment that you won't even be able to afford to field in a real fight.

Basically, while Putin may have thought that he thought of everything, he forgot that Pep Boys does everything for less.

[brucejoel99]

Leaked footage of new carbon nanotube technology on Russian vehicles. 100% Javelin proof!

Bruh

[brucejoel99]

In the tweet thread he said 2 former or current FSB contacts thought the letter is genuine but don't agree with the conclusions. So it's just 1 guy's opinion.

*all of the (but, of course, we're not privy to which conclusions they do & don't agree with)

[brucejoel99]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

Funny that you happened to say that right when you did, because Kyiv made it to its 11th post-invasion sunrise without being captured a little over half-an-hour ago now, after having been penciled in by the Russians to fall on Day 2. Everyday with Kyiv intact is a day in Ukraine's favor, so personally, I don't think that it's a stretch to say that this whole thing could go either way at this point. For Ukraine, the longer the war, the better (militarily, not humanitarianly speaking): even without NATO intervention, Ukraine can still continuously resupply from the West while Russia burns through its stockpiles.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500584474471510027

Ukraine threatening to make the SZR for Putin-adjacent Russians what Mossad was for ex-Nazis 60 years ago!? Too based.

[brucejoel99]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056

Or OP (or, I guess, OT since they're the Original Tweeter) is just underestimating NATO intel, which is what my vote is for. Intel is always more significant than lay-people think to give it credit for, & a combination of NATO-based AEW&C systems & classic espionage are more than capable of providing the Ukrainians with real-time actionable intel on Russian positions.

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056

What could it possibly be, though?

If it's not an underestimation of NATO intel, then it could be either Ukraine receiving covert air assistance from NATO (an unthinkably laughable act of war; see: the reaction to the recent plan put forth by a "stable genius" to paint Chinese flags on our F-22s & bomb the sh*t out of Russia) or Russia deliberately keeping Ukrainian airspace contested in order to try & draw NATO into the conflict so that they can save face when they're forced to withdraw (i.e., a plan that directly contradicts, y'know, all of the witnessed Russian operations attempting to establish air superiority over Ukraine, not to mention a plan that's inherently reliant upon way too many moving pieces to be something that can legitimately be speculated about, never mind a plan necessarily requiring Putin to be a rational actor, which has been called into question).

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056

https://cdn.eslgaming.com/play/eslgfx/gfx/logos/teams/4283000/4283085_medium.jpg

I wonder if there are moles in the Russian government at this point.

There obviously are (see: the anti-war sects of the FSB going all-in on treason & thwarting all of the Russian assassination attempts on Zelenskyy by leaking details thereof to him), but they're already accounted for, as espionage counts at intel.

[brucejoel99]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. They'll increase production on their own as prices surge to maintain market share and cash in; political pressure is not relevant. They're not going to cut off their noses to spite Biden, so call their bluff.

This feels like a misrepresentation of how petroleum markets work. Biden is asking them to ramp their production up in order to decrease prices, whereas Saudi Arabia & the UAE would rather have prices remain high so that they can benefit from the highest possible margins. If they further increase production, then they'll see diminishing returns with falling prices. So, yeah, Biden is asking them to do something that they genuinely don't seem willing to engage in at this time, meaning that the Saudis & Emiratis do genuinely have something to gain from their perspective by pressuring him on Yemen. Granted, this perspective that's presently being shared by Saudi Arabia & the UAE is rather short-termist insofar as the elasticity preferences of consumers are concerned, but OPEC has never really been known for the long-game anyway.

[brucejoel99]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. They'll increase production on their own as prices surge to maintain market share and cash in; political pressure is not relevant. They're not going to cut off their noses to spite Biden, so call their bluff.

This feels like a misrepresentation of how petroleum markets work. Biden is asking them to ramp their production up in order to decreases prices, whereas Saudi Arabia & the UAE would rather have prices remain high so that they can benefit from the highest possible margins. If they further increase production, then they'll see diminishing returns with falling prices. So, yeah, Biden is asking them to do something that they genuinely don't seem willing to engage in at this time. Granted, this perspective that's evidently being shared by Saudi Arabia & the UAE right now is rather short-termist insofar as the elasticity preferences of consumers are concerned, but OPEC has never really been known for the long-game.

The Saudis do want lower (than present) prices. Higher prices are a risk for them because they are a low-cost supplier compared to many other suppliers. High prices mean producers in the US, Canada and elsewhere become profitable and start increasing production and market share. What the Saudis care about is profitability while maintaining market share, which means prices that are somewhat high (maybe in the $70 range) but not too high. Prices as they are right now are much higher than the Saudis want.

In a vacuum, you're correct: the substitution effect would apply. But at least part of your point is negated by the fact that it's the European petroleum market which is being hit the hardest: we export LNG to Europe but not crude, & it's their primary supply chain that's been disrupted, but we don't have the crude oil capacity to fill the Russian void; the Saudis do.

[brucejoel99]

There's no way on God's green Earth that the Russians will be able defeat a country with people willing to defuse a 500 kilogram unexploded bomb during active fighting (shelling is heard in the background) wearing no protection beyond a police vest, using only a pair of gardening gloves and a water bottle.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1501654247619842049

Does this mean that Ukraine is the Florida of Europe?

[brucejoel99]

Madison Cawthorn calls Ukraine government 'evil,' Zelensky 'a thug'
 "Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug," Cawthorn said in a video obtained by WRAL. "Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies."

The “GOP’s AOC” has a less than nuanced take on this situation. Truly the Party of Lincoln Putin.

Makes sense: Cawthorn is being primaried & Zelenskyy is super unpopular in the U.S. right now... right?

Oh, wait:

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballot/status/1500933941322256384

[brucejoel99]

Meanwhile in Sweden...

https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1502622477268234243
https://mobile.twitter.com/starsandstripes/status/1502740713070465024
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1502647001510551553

If you don’t want someone to join a mutual defense pact, maybe don’t threaten to invade them?

At this point, they should join NATO just because it'll anger Russia

[brucejoel99]

Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

Keep in mind that Russia's gamble remains exactly what it was when they invaded 2-&-a-1/2 weeks ago: that they can secure victory in Ukraine before the West is willing to sacrifice its own economic security. Intentions aside, Putin knows that higher gas prices will kill Biden, & that Scholz's new government in Germany is skittish trying to project their own power on the world stage while still having to fill Merkel's shoes. Basically, Russia picked the right time, but the wrong(est?) strategy.

[brucejoel99]

Well, this could turn into something big:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098241612750852

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098245840609288

If I didn't know any better, I'd presume that Russia is just hoping for Chinese involvement so as to potentially create a rift among sanctioning countries: even just the U.S. sanctioning China would create significant economic issues for everybody.

[brucejoel99]

The lack of changes in the frontlines recently really suggests Russia is preparing for another big push and is just focusing on defense while it reorganizes. Expect large swaths of territory to fall rapidly once this push begins. It’s clear Russia has learned from their mistakes.

Are we talking about the same Russian military? The one that's run out of enough food to ask the Chinese for their MREs?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1503533835035811841

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1504148492389912583?