Will the 2024 Democratic primary be similar to the 2016 Democratic Primary (or 2000 primary)

[brucejoel99]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

*38, as Vice President Buttigieg's campaign will likely prevent the 2032 primary from being a truly open one.

[brucejoel99]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

*38, as Vice President Buttigieg's campaign will likely prevent the 2032 primary from being a truly open one.

Buttigieg at least would be a more competitive primary.

Depends on how his Vice Presidency goes

[brucejoel99]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

I have to imagine that, in a one-on-one contest between VP Harris & Warren, Harris would win the nomination by just replicating Biden's 2020 primary numbers in the South, managing to get a decent home-state advantage in CA, & winning maybe 1 or 2 other states with decently-sized Black populations (e.g., NY). Warren could literally win the rest of the country (e.g., the entire Midwest, everything in the West except CA, & most of the Northeast), but Harris wins the nomination because she wins her states by much bigger margins. I think Harris would still win even with a map like this:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)