Joe Biden cabinet speculation megathread

[brucejoel99]

Sorry to bump, this is really the only appropriate 'Cabinet' (mega-?)thread I could think to post it in:

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1291368167470751745

This certainly made my Thursday better!

[brucejoel99]

Why are people commenting on this four-month-old thread as though it's anything more than the kind of random, baseless speculation we've grown accustomed to surrounding the Biden campaign?

Biden is gonna do what he wants and nobody is going to see any of it coming.  There are no leaks, and nobody knows a thing about what's going on in his mind or campaign.

Ahem:

Sorry to bump, this is really the only appropriate 'Cabinet' (mega-?)thread I could think to post it in:

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1291368167470751745
This certainly made my Thursday better!

[brucejoel99]

Mods, can this formally be made a Cabinet tea leaves (or something along those lines?) megathread? Or would that belong in U.S. General Discussion?

In any event, Politico has a new write-up on the potential Biden Cabinet: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/joe-biden-cabinet-picks-397905

Notable names mentioned include:

- Susan Rice at State
- Elizabeth Warren at Treasury
- Eric Garcetti at Transportation or HUD
- Karen Bass at HUD or HHS
- Pete Buttigieg as UN Ambassador or at the VA

[brucejoel99]

I want policy experts in charge of key agencies, not politicians.

Eh, Cabinet secretaries should still be political appointees if necessary, because their job is organizational management. You don't need to be a doctor to run HHS; you just need to be able to competently run a large organization, & in doing so, they're performing inherently political tasks when they decide on the policies & objectives of their departments, so they need to be informed & guided by what they were appointed to do. The technocratic career officials & civil servants are the ones who hammer out the details & application, as should be their job.

Look at it this way: is Tim Cook an expert in hardware development? No, his background is in supply chains & logistics. He doesn't need to know the details about the latest advances in chip technology; that's what his staff is for, & cabinet secretaries tend to have very competent staffs of career professionals.

[brucejoel99]

If Biden gets a 51-49 Senate, then I can see Warren getting offered the Treasury spot. Ideally you want the Democrats to come in with 53 to 55 Senate seats to give more wiggle room.

Is this supposed to be "can't"? Because if it's as close as 51-49, then any unnecessary Senate vacancy probably isn't worth risking.

[brucejoel99]

Would Susan Rice make it through a Republican senate? I have a hard time seeing her get the nomination if the Democrats don't retake the chamber.

If it's still a Republican Senate & they're not confident in Rice being confirmable, I'd imagine Kerry (as alluded to in the original Axios article) is a go-to backup, given his Senate relationships & previous experience in the job.

[brucejoel99]

Would Susan Rice make it through a Republican senate? I have a hard time seeing her get the nomination if the Democrats don't retake the chamber.

Literally nobody will be confirmed if there's a Republican Senate

If it's a 51-49 R Senate, Romney & Murkowski (& even Collins, if she's still there) wouldn't stand for no Cabinet confirmations.

[brucejoel99]

God, I hope Biden doesn't choose some from Wall Street like Dimon or Finucane for Treasury secretary. He needs to pick someone like Cordray or Chiang.

Cordray is the obvious pick for the CFPB. Chiang is irrelevant.

I don't know. I think Cordray deserves a higher position, not the job he already had. I think Biden gives CFPB to Jared Bernstein

Bernstein is slated for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, according to the Politico article.

[brucejoel99]

I might add that we could see a number of Deputy Secretaries under Obama to take over an agency. On Treasury, Sarah Bloom Raskin is an option. If Susan Rice gets trouble with senate confirmation, I could see her return to her old post of National Security Adviser, which doesn't require senate approval, and have Tony Blinken as reserve pick for State. He's advising the Biden campaign already and was number two to John Kerry in the Obama years. He seems close with Bidenworld and with Kerry.

Blinken has apparently been earmarked for National Security Advisor already. If Rice can't get confirmed, I think Kerry returns to Foggy Bottom (as alluded to by the Axios article) before Biden resorts to shuffling around his whole planned foreign policy team.

[brucejoel99]

HHS: Bass

Lujan Grisham is also a contender for HHS, if the New Mexico press is anything to go by.

[brucejoel99]

Why should MLG resign a 1st term governorship in a safe seat for a B-tier cabinet assignment? Doesn't make much sense to me.

She has a background (experience as state health secretary & a good response to COVID) that prepares her well for the position, & being the HHS Secretary who helps bring America back from the brink of COVID certainly seems much more toutable than Governor of New Mexico (which she could still hypothetically lose in a good Biden midterm for the GOP).

Not to mention: when the President asks you to serve, you serve.

[brucejoel99]

Most Presidents of one party will pick a member from the other party for cabinet.

How about Senator Mitt Romney for State, or possibly Treasury?

LOL no. Mitt Romney will not (and should not) be in a Biden cabinet.

Yeah, keep Romney in the Senate so we can have at least 1 reasonable Republican to work with. He's got the power to be a McCain-style maverick who sways the vote our way when we need it most.

(Though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him nominate a retiring/retired Republican like, say, Will Hurd.)

[brucejoel99]

It will be Susan Rice.

[brucejoel99]

Jones is apparently the only name on the list for AG as of rn:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/10/13/bidens-cabinet-490580

[brucejoel99]

Jones is apparently the only name on the list for AG as of rn:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/10/13/bidens-cabinet-490580

What would happen if Jones actually does win re-election though. Obviously, the chnace of the happenning is very small at this point, but that would kind of suck to have 1 less vote in the senate to work with.

In the event that he's actually re-elected, then the transition team goes back to the drawing board & probably comes up with somebody like Yates. They're not sacrificing a 6-year term in an Alabama Senate seat.

[brucejoel99]

Jones is apparently the only name on the list for AG as of rn:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/10/13/bidens-cabinet-490580

On the whole, that strikes me as being a pretty decent list. Does anyone know where Lael Brainard stands policy wise? I can't really find too much.  I'm not sure how likely it is, but I'm holding out hope that Biden picks someone with progressive bona fides for Treasury.  Sarah Bloom Raskin or Richard Cordray would be ideal.

She's mostly a moderate but one who supports progressive policies like the Community Reinvestment Act & reform efforts that would encourage more lending in low- & moderate-income markets.

[brucejoel99]

Why is everyone dodging Wesley Clark as a potential Defense pick? Has his time just passed or something?

Perhaps something to do with not wanting a retired general in charge of the DOD (even though he's been retired for 2 decades now) so as to emphasize the principle of civilian control over the military?

[brucejoel99]

LMFAO all the obama admin will be coming back in

We can only hope.

[brucejoel99]

There's a cabinet speculation megathread for these types of things. Mods, please merge:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=363613.200

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, let's wait & see who he actually nominates to what positions. There's nothing wrong with considering qualified people who just happen to have an (R) next to their name. As long as they & Biden are on the same page regarding whatever subject the agency they'd be named to head covers, it'll be fine.

[brucejoel99]

McRaven, who has now formally endorsed Biden, could well be a top choice for SecDef.

Eh, he'd still need a waiver like Mattis, & I really don't wanna make a habit of appointing recently-retired flag officers. Feels like being led down a bad path.

[brucejoel99]

McRaven, who has now formally endorsed Biden, could well be a top choice for SecDef.

Eh, he'd still need a waiver like Mattis, & I really don't wanna make a habit of appointing recently-retired flag officers. Feels like being led down a bad path.

I think that's an overblown fear. Realistically, considering what the Defense Department actually does, recently retired flag officers are probably the most qualified for the job in most cases.

But the core function of the DoD is civilian control of the military, & one of the (obvious) ways this is (usually) ensured is by having somebody who's not connected to the military & its leadership - in having recently been a part of it - serve in a role suited for civilian oversight. The law exists to protect the country from a military interested in taking control, & I don't want our side helping to potentially enable the possibility of that happening even a little bit.

[brucejoel99]

McRaven, who has now formally endorsed Biden, could well be a top choice for SecDef.

Eh, he'd still need a waiver like Mattis, & I really don't wanna make a habit of appointing recently-retired flag officers. Feels like being led down a bad path.

I think that's an overblown fear. Realistically, considering what the Defense Department actually does, recently retired flag officers are probably the most qualified for the job in most cases.

But the core function of the DoD is civilian control of the military, & one of the (obvious) ways this is (usually) ensured is by having somebody who's not connected to the military & its leadership - in having recently been a part of it - serve in a role suited for civilian oversight. The law exists to protect the country from a military interested in taking control, & I don't want our side helping to potentially enable the possibility of that happening even a little bit.

Being a part of the military doesn’t not mean you are automatically an interventionist hell bent on utilizing the military outside of its true purpose. By all means McRaven seems like an intelligent man who would by pragmatic as defense Secretary. the fear of flag officers being named SecDef has always been puzzling to me and the reasoning you gave has always felt overly idealistic to me. People like Mattis and McRaven are the absolute best types of candidates to serve in that sort of position.

And at the end of the day, the Military and the defense Secretary will answer to the President.

It's not about fearing people like Mattis & McRaven. Yes, they'd individually be (& - in Mattis' case - generally was) good Defense Secretaries. But it's not about them. It's about not normalizing their precedents so that nobody gives a damn if people like Mike Flynn or Keith Kellogg were to be appointed. It's in those type of people that danger lies.

[brucejoel99]

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-reportedly-considering-former-senator-182159332.html

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2020/10/massachusetts-gov-charlie-baker-floated-as-possible-cabinet-member-for-joe-biden.html

https://www.whio.com/news/local/former-ohio-gov-kasich-being-considered-biden-cabinet-if-hes-elected-report-says/IEYMGFQ3OVEDREWBMK6URMAAF4/

Already being discussed elsewhere, but Biden is considering Charlie Baker, John Kasich and Jeff Flake for cabinet positions.

Any ideas which ones (Kasich, for example since he was previously OMB director, might be Treasury or Commerce, but I can't think of what Biden could be considering Baker or Flake for.)

Baker for something like Transportation/Energy & Meg Whitman for something like Commerce/Labor seem like the only legitimate possibilities. I don't imagine Kasich & Flake are actually legitimate Cabinet contenders.

[brucejoel99]

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-reportedly-considering-former-senator-182159332.html

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2020/10/massachusetts-gov-charlie-baker-floated-as-possible-cabinet-member-for-joe-biden.html

https://www.whio.com/news/local/former-ohio-gov-kasich-being-considered-biden-cabinet-if-hes-elected-report-says/IEYMGFQ3OVEDREWBMK6URMAAF4/

Already being discussed elsewhere, but Biden is considering Charlie Baker, John Kasich and Jeff Flake for cabinet positions.

Any ideas which ones (Kasich, for example since he was previously OMB director, might be Treasury or Commerce, but I can't think of what Biden could be considering Baker or Flake for.)

Baker for something like Transportation/Energy & Meg Whitman for something like Commerce/Labor seem like the only legitimate possibilities. I don't imagine Kasich & Flake are actually legitimate Cabinet contenders.

No Republican should be running the Labor Department.

Oh yeah, definitely. Don't get me wrong, I don't support her being put in charge there, I just said that it seems like one of the few legitimate possibilities with regards to those mentioned in the article.