UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1247242253199912960?s=20

December 13, 2019: "a landslide majority of 80 seats surely signals the end to the instability that the UK has faced over these previous years"...

2020: "Don't hold my f**king beer; I could have a deadly virus!"

[brucejoel99]

So, a brief summary of the constitutional situation.

Raab appears to be have been designated as an emergency stand-in (without the formal title of Deputy PM) but this has no constitutional significance. Neither does the Deputy PM title. If Johnson were to die or be rendered so ill that it is not realistic for him to remain in post, then it is likely that there would be an emergency meeting of the Cabinet and quite probably a vote, or at least an earnest discussion with the same function. The 'winner' would then be nominated to the Queen and there would be some form of virtual kissing of hands.* There is no such thing as an interim PM under British constitutional law; the 'winner' would be PM. At some point there would then be a Conservative leadership election, but it would not be possible to hold one for a while. The 'interim' PM would then resign and be replaced by the winner of the leadership poll, unless that person was the same person.

_{*They do not, actually, kiss the hand of the sovereign anyway. It's just a thing that's said.}

In all likelihood, I presume said 'winner' would indeed end up being Raab since that's who Boris evidently wanted in charge.

[brucejoel99]

Even if he does get through it, it might put his longer term political future in serious doubt.

How so?

Any serious respiratory condition can cause permanent damage to the tissue of the lungs, reducing lung capacity, sometimes quite dramatically. The effect of that on a portly middle aged man could be severely debilitating.

"Iain Duncan Smith declares Boris Johnson fit for work."

[brucejoel99]

So, a brief summary of the constitutional situation.

Raab appears to be have been designated as an emergency stand-in (without the formal title of Deputy PM) but this has no constitutional significance. Neither does the Deputy PM title. If Johnson were to die or be rendered so ill that it is not realistic for him to remain in post, then it is likely that there would be an emergency meeting of the Cabinet and quite probably a vote, or at least an earnest discussion with the same function. The 'winner' would then be nominated to the Queen and there would be some form of virtual kissing of hands.* There is no such thing as an interim PM under British constitutional law; the 'winner' would be PM. At some point there would then be a Conservative leadership election, but it would not be possible to hold one for a while. The 'interim' PM would then resign and be replaced by the winner of the leadership poll, unless that person was the same person.

_{*They do not, actually, kiss the hand of the sovereign anyway. It's just a thing that's said.}

The UK didn't have to deal with a dying Prime Minister since Palmerston.

There were however two interesting cases in Australia, dealing with an interim appointment when the Prime Minister died in office. First in 1945, when the Governor General appointed Labor's Deputy Leader, Frank Forde, as Prime Minister. He served for mere seven days, until Labor held a leadership vote, which he lost to Ben Chifley. If such a scenario were to be implemented then we have a little pickle, as Tories doesn't have a "Deputy Leader" position.

The second example from Australia occurred after Harold Holt's disappearance in 1967. The Governor General appointed John McEwen as Prime Minister. McEwen was the leader of the Country Party, a junior coalition partner to Holt's Liberals, and served under the understanding it'll last only until Liberals picked the new leader. It wouldn't apply either, as BoJo has a majority.

It'd be an interesting situation if it comes to the worst, and the country would be constitutionally leaderless between the Prime Minister's death and the cabinet picking an interim successor.

I assume a meeting will occur within an hour of his death. It’s not like a president, there can be a void in time when there is no PM and we all just pretend the monarch heads the government for an hour.

Moreover, during said hour, Raab would presumably be the one 'in charge,' on the basis of his having been chosen by Boris to deputize for him in his absence.

[brucejoel99]

Moreover, during said hour, Raab would presumably be the one 'in charge,' on the basis of his having been chosen by Boris to deputize for him in his absence.

This designation, and this is very important, has no constitutional significance. All it means is that he's heading up press briefings and chairing cabinet meetings.

Well, he's also chairing the National Security Council & Boris has even given him the authority to launch military action without Boris' consent if required (& if the Cabinet agrees), so in the event of a major calamity, Raab is surely the one who's at the helm, if not formally 'in charge' on paper.

[brucejoel99]

In true british fashion this whole fiasco has emerged because Gordon Brown had a feud with Harriet Harman & didn't want to make her deputy prime minister- and then wanted to make Mandelson deputy prime minister without the title so made him 'First Secretary of State'

I'm not a constitional historian/scholar or expert but we really should have some sort of codified succession; I never understand why the position of Deputy Prime Minister was not made virtually obligtatory & beefed up with the explicit understanding that they can take over the reins.

The latest rumour is that the Cabinet Office has a 'document' which deals with the national security implications of a succession or lack of in some sort of similar event; of course most of these probably date from the Cold War or from post 9/11 plans.

Good points. The positions of Deputy Prime Minister and/or¹ First Secretary of State are legally nothing more than honorary titles, denoting honorary precedence over other cabinet members. The UK clearly needs a proper legislation to have someone who's clearly second in the chain of command and who can fully take over in the time of emergency. Right now all you have is the PM saying "this guy will deputize for me", which is both vague and lacking a firm legal basis.

I mean, let's imagine the Prime Minister died and before the cabinet agrees on an interim appointment to take over until a leadership election something big happens that would require the Prime Minister to make an instant decision. Who's going to make that decision? The cabinet at large or will they go to the Queen and ask her to do it in a violation of the constitutional convention?

¹ It becomes even "funnier" when you have two diffrent people serving as Deputy PM and First Secretary at the same time.

I think Al might have touched on it before but when we last had it when Macmillian's health was in an awful state- the Chief Whip (Ted Heath) asked cabinet members and backbenchers who should be leader although this was before the tories had a formal provision for electing a leader.

It's all rather chaotic; to be quite morbid if something had happened to Brown between 2007-2008 we would have had Harriet Harman as the acting leader of the Labour Party, which by rights would make her the de-facto choice as Prime Minister as the leader of the majority party; but of course the cabinet could have easily gone for Straw, Miliband or Alan Johnson.

On the whole it has generally worked previously when the DPM or first secretary of state is someone rather umabitouous, at the end of their career and without extreme views (catergories that Hague, Lidington, Green and even by the end Mandelson fell into)

That's why the Raab choice is a bit bizarre; but looking at the cabinet I can't see who else there is!

Actually, when Labour is in government & the party leader is PM & the leader, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, then the party rules dictate that the Cabinet shall appoint one of its members to serve as leader "in consultation with the NEC" until a leadership election can be held, so it'd still be chaotic, but Harman wouldn't have been able to succeed to the acting leadership without the Cabinet consenting to it.

[brucejoel99]

Johnson went around deliberately shaking the hands of Coronavirus patients. How likely do you guys think it is that he gave himself the virus on purpose in order to gain publicity/sympathy and serve as a unifying national figure? It seems like the sort of thing he'd do; Boris loves to take risks and it might all play to his favor.

He's certainly a massive chancer, I'll give you that, but I can't imagine he's stupid enough to literally risk his life for a bump in the polls.

[brucejoel99]

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and has been transferred to a different service within the hospital for monitoring

Fantastic news! Now rest, you f**ker, & get yourself fully fit so we can criticize you without any feelings of guilt.

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, for fun the first post leadership poll from Opinium have the Tories on 55% to 29% for Labour.

Broadly matches up with the other polls that the Tories are doing a decent job of managing the crisis & the public is rallying around them.

[brucejoel99]

Boris Johnson is now out of the hospital

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-52262012

On Easter Sunday, no less! The memes will be writing themselves today.

[brucejoel99]

I didn't wake up today expecting Vince Comrade Cable to come out in support of Dengism, but here we go.

I assume he's being serious here, but I honestly have no idea:

https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/1253020673573871617

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ldnyounglabour/status/1257728205022277632?s=21

C'mon, London Young Labour: let's not pretend that the unionists in Northern Ireland don't deserve an opinion on their country, & that you f**king middle class London students know a damn thing about Ireland. That you'd tear the wound right open again for your vision of what Ireland should be, regardless of what the peace process has already determined, is disgusting. Groups like you aren't only a blight on Labour; you're a blight on the left. I'll say it again: self-proclaimed socialists who proudly champion things that'd undoubtedly lead to violence are disgusting.

[brucejoel99]

If he gets fired for this, then I'll eat Paddy Ashdown's hat. These are the actions of a guy who knows that he can do whatever he wants because he's already got the PM purring like a goddamn kitten in his lap. Watch everybody else who's been fired for a lot less than that raise their palms to the sky in a mighty call of "what the ACTUAL f**k!?" as nothing happens to him.

[brucejoel99]

Johnson is currently doing the daily press conference himself, whereas ordinarily they're farmed out to a minor Cabinet minister. Defending Cummings to the hilt and insisting that any parent would understand. This seems to be a line deliberately designed to piss off anybody in the country who has had a medical emergency in the family in the past month.

Honest to god, having watched that, he's done himself no favors at all: starts off by vocalizing what millions are thinking (that it's one rule for them & another for us) & seems like he might actually call out Cummings on it before basically just confirming that the rules don't apply.

The Tories have handled this so appallingly that Labour now has every right to exploit it to the hilt. Cummings could've resigned or been fired & Starmer would've had little to say about it but "good." Now, it's a fair target & I hope that it accordingly hurts the Tories.

Until then, though, Dominic Cummings "could stand in the middle of Durham & shoot somebody & [he] wouldn't lose any prime ministerial backing."

Better yet: "I don't even wait to see if I'm symptomatic. And when you're Dominic Cummings, they let you do it. You can do anything. Drive across the country during a lockdown to visit your parents. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything." - Dominic Cummings

[brucejoel99]

The headlines should be "Cummings confesses to dangerous driving with child in the car."

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1265394364936839169

Boris may as well email his 50 most marginal MPs & tell them that losing their job is a sacrifice worth making to keep Cummings in place.

[brucejoel99]

Well PMQs was hilarous today.

What an utter car crash. I've never seen Boris as rattled as he was when being questioned by Sir Keir, & his inability to answer the questions asked of him was very noticeable.

Boris is a man completely out of his depth & with no grasp of facts that should be at his fingertips. How can he not know what stage the the country is at when it's his own government's system? How is he oblivious to the R-value when he surely would've been briefed on it that day & it was likely to be raised in Parliament & at the daily briefing?

It's quite frankly pathetic that he spent the whole time whining about being held to account when that's exactly what Sir Keir is there to do.

[brucejoel99]

Meanwhile the Business Secretary is self-isolating after displaying coronavirus symptoms at the dispatch box.

So does that mean that BoJo is gonna have to self-isolate for 2 weeks again? Because one can obviously still spread it through contact regardless of one's immunity.

[brucejoel99]

Three new polls tonight, all of which show a Tory lead in the region of 2/3 points. The tide has clearly shifted from a few weeks ago - will it shift any further?

I noticed this earlier as well. Is this just Cummings plus some new leader goodwill for Starmer, or is there something more going on? Either way, it would be funny if in a years time we are in another Blare situation where Labour is well ahead in the polls, but can't capitalize on those numbers for a several years.

Just wait until the public inquiry. Things aren't gonna get better for the Tories.

[brucejoel99]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uk-foreign-secretary-fire-taking-knee-comments-71320239

Britain’s foreign secretary has drawn criticism after he suggested in an interview that taking a knee appeared to be from “Game of Thrones” and was a symbol of subjugation.

Dominic Raab told talkRADIO Thursday that he understood the frustration driving the Black Lives Matter movement, before adding: “I’ve got to say on this taking the knee thing - which I don’t know, maybe it’s got a broader history - but it seems to be taken from the ‘Game Of Thrones’.”


“It feels to me like a symbol of subjugation and subordination, rather than one of liberation and emancipation,” he said. "But I understand people feel differently about it, so it is a matter of personal choice.”

A lot of very, very stupid things have been said about the Black Lives Matter movement & such: from the racists who think that "Black Lives Matter" means that black lives matter more than white lives, to the racists who wanted to find a new brand of tea because Yorkshire Tea wasn't racist enough for them, but thinking that kneeling during the anthem &/or taking a knee comes from Game of Thrones may actually take 1st place for being the most stupid reaction of all.

[brucejoel99]

Mass stabbing incident in Glasgow. Suspect shot dead. No information other than spurious rumours.

OMG

If this is terror-related, then that's 2 incidents in as many weeks.

[brucejoel99]

Hey, do y'all remember when Boris was this amazingly popular invincible man of the people etc?

To be fair to him, people do simply get tired of politicians. It's most likely just fatigue after all of his...er, eleven months in power. 

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1276960024355618817

Good stuff, but the public's favorable attitude to Starmer needs to be extended to the rest of Labour. Seems like they like him but don't totally trust the party, though I suppose that's to be expected with a recent change in leadership. Hopefully he'll bring the party with him in time.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/28/britain-sedwill-boris-johnson-343384

[snip]

Prime Minister Cummings' shake-up continues, purging & fashioning the Civil Service in his own image. What a spineless joke BoJo is.

[brucejoel99]

"Defund the police" discourse has arrived here and it's even (significantly) dumber than in the United States. Literally what the hell is wrong with Labour left twitter? I think my brain is breaking from socialists arguing that austerity is good now.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1277556165040148485?s=20

And yes I know that when you point this out the advocates say "well we actually mean increasing funding for social services". Then don't ing say defund the police then!! How hard is it?!

Defund the police makes sense in an American context, where our police forces are equipped like paramilitaries. Doesn't make sense in Britain, though, since the police there are already excellent at deescalation & community policing anyway.

This is half of the problem with global movements. Are there issues with the police & policing in Britain? Yes, of course. But it's not the same as our issues here in the U.S. I agree with the ideas & concepts behind 'Defund the Police' (i.e. increasing funding for social services) as a goal, but in this context, Britain just isn't the U.S.

[brucejoel99]

I mean T-May already defunded the police so I’m not sure where the meat and two veg of this argument lies?

Exactly. Hell, if anything, the police in Britain need more funding!