1992: Jerry Brown the Democratic nominee and Perot doesn’t run

[brucejoel99]

Perot endorses Brown, Brown wins by a fair margin, though smaller than Clinton's in real life because Brown's unorthodox ideas would probably lose him some support.

As for his presidency, he's likely to be even less successful domestically than Clinton was in his first term. Clinton's budget just barely passed by one vote; Brown's would have so many conflicting elements (like a flat tax rate & a higher corporate tax rate simultaneously) that it probably wouldn't be passed. The government could possibly be shut down while Congress scrambles to draft a budget that satisfies their constituents, their donors, & the wrath of Moonbeam all at the same time. It'd be hugely embarrassing for Brown as well as for Democrats generally. Hell, during the 1992 campaign, even those close to Brown expected him to be terrible at PR while President. So, like Clinton, he wouldn't have been very persuasive when it came to advocating for bold policies.

The million dollar question would be: does Brown pivot & co-opt GOP policies to get reelected as Clinton did? If yes, then he wins a second term come 1996. If no, then Brown's best hope to stay in office would be to attack the GOP Congress & boast of an improved economy.

(Also, one minor potential change from real life would be that Colin Powell might've been promoted to the rank of Five-Star General. In real life, Clinton's team prevented him from getting the promotion, possibly due to the fact that he was touted as a GOP challenger in 1996. A different President (not just Brown, it could very well have been anyone else) might not be so suspicious of Powell, who at the time wasn't yet politically active, & he just might get that coveted fifth star.)

[brucejoel99]

HW was doomed due to 12th year GOP fatigue and a lame ecomomy. His foreign policy accomplishments were widely praised, but this wasn't the decisive issue in the '92 campaign against any challenger.

I wouldn't say those things necessarily "doomed" him. For one thing, had Bush not given in to the Democrats & raised taxes, then he wouldn't have cost himself a lot of his support & credibility. The impact of that alone on his loss was pretty significant.

[brucejoel99]

HW was doomed due to 12th year GOP fatigue and a lame ecomomy. His foreign policy accomplishments were widely praised, but this wasn't the decisive issue in the '92 campaign against any challenger.

I wouldn't say those things necessarily "doomed" him. For one thing, had Bush not given in to the Democrats & raised taxes, then he wouldn't have cost himself a lot of his support & credibility. The impact of that alone on his loss was pretty significant.

Where did the anti-tax voters go? Did they vote for Perot? Did they stay home?

Unknown as the 1992 exit poll didn't ask voters about their positions concerning the pledge, but we all know that not only did Buchanan repeatedly cited the pledge as an example of a broken promise in the primary, but then Clinton (the moderate that he is) cited the quotation & questioned Bush's trustworthiness. To suggest that his failure to keep the pledge wasn't a reason for his defeat would be unwise.