KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[brucejoel99]

Maybe he'll choke on his tongue.

[brucejoel99]

I think Kobach will be elected if he's the nominee.  Trump will probably win the state by 20 points again, and senate races are almost always more partisan than gubernatorial races.  There might be a bit more ticket splitting than usual, but enough to pull the Dem across?  Seems very unlikely to me.

It seems unlikely to me that Trump will carry KS by 20+ points again. Johnson County is likely to swing against him, perhaps significantly, and he's already mostly maxed out in rural KS.

With that said, I concur with your overall point. However, if anyone can pull it off, it's Kobach. This is the guy that just managed to get thumped with a mere 43% of the vote despite having the (R) next to his name in KANSAS a mere 8 months ago. It might not be a toss up, but I think his nomination would certainly make it competitive, assuming Dems can find a decent candidate.

inb4 olawakandi talks up Grissom again.

[brucejoel99]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

[brucejoel99]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

Exactly, I think he would win at least by 5 points, if he becomes the nominee of course.

Ah, gotcha.

[brucejoel99]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

[brucejoel99]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

[brucejoel99]

I think Marshall will win the primary and general election. Republicans aren't stupid enough to nominate Kobach.

August 7, 2018.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

By definition, it's not too late until next Tuesday, & he'd probably clear the establishment field.

As for being hurt by corruption investigations, the (R) next to his name will negate that.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

By definition, it's not too late until next Tuesday, & he'd probably clear the establishment field.

As for being hurt by corruption investigations, the (R) next to his name will negate that.

Would he necessarily clear the field? Unless it was somehow brokered in a way that Marshall could have the field cleared for his congressional race I’m not sure what would be in it for him to drop out at this late stage. I’m pretty sure he’d still win the nomination but I don’t think it’d just be him against Kobach.

This would presumably be the pre-requisite for Pompeo actually entering the Senate race, yes. If Marshall's congressional race can't be cleared, then the Senate field would presumably just be cleared for Marshall (rather than Pompeo) to go one-on-one with Kobach.

[brucejoel99]

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

It'd certainly be competitive. Whether it's "a tossup" is another matter.

[brucejoel99]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

I don’t think many Democrats would or should care about the difference in quality between a potential Senator Kobach who they have a 50-50 shot of beating. Or an almost guaranteed Senator Marshall if he wins the primary. As it is, both Kobach and Marshall are sycophants to a guy who suggested people inject themselves with bleach and decided to make an ass of himself waving a bible around at a church. The end result is the same no matter what if Bollier loses: a vote to keep McConnell majority leader

Think of it this way: Marshall would probably be a generic Republican who sticks around for several terms and has a reliable voting record, but doesn't really make much of an impact, good or bad. Think Jerry Moran, Mike Crapo or Bill Cassidy.

On the other hand, Kobach is very ambitious, and would have a new platform to build his national profile, likely in advance of a Trump-esque presidential run in 2024 or 2028.

I've tried to explain this as well, the poster you are responding to seems to be under the impression that a voting record is the only thing that matters when electing a senator, something that you and I disagree with.

I’m well aware of the raised platform Kobach would get in the event he won the general election, but who cares? If Republicans are suicidal enough to nominate him for President, have at it. The dude lost Kansas by 5 points, for Christ sake.

And it’s not like having an obnoxious Republican asshole in the Senate is going to suddenly undermine the “institution” of the Senate. Take it from someone who is blessed to be represented by Ted Cruz. John Cornyn might be less showy than him, but at the end of the day, he’s just as bad as Cruz. I think it’s well clear to anyone who has paid any bit of attention that we’re well past that point in American history.

The false dilemma you’re posing here re: Kobach vs. Marshall is really as simple as “do Democrats want to run against someone they have a 50% chance of beating or someone they have a 5% chance of beating?” You don’t have to be a poker player to know which one you’d rather take if you're a Democrat

Right? Kobach is a more evil & objectively worse person to have in the Senate, but he & Marshall would vote the same & have the exact same policy impact in the Senate anyway, so Kobach getting elected doesn't really bother me, not least since Kobach would actually serve to worsen the national GOP's brand overall. I'm all in for Kobach if him being nominated gives Bollier a great chance compared to worse chance she'd probably have against Marshall.

[brucejoel99]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

I don’t think many Democrats would or should care about the difference in quality between a potential Senator Kobach who they have a 50-50 shot of beating. Or an almost guaranteed Senator Marshall if he wins the primary. As it is, both Kobach and Marshall are sycophants to a guy who suggested people inject themselves with bleach and decided to make an ass of himself waving a bible around at a church. The end result is the same no matter what if Bollier loses: a vote to keep McConnell majority leader

Think of it this way: Marshall would probably be a generic Republican who sticks around for several terms and has a reliable voting record, but doesn't really make much of an impact, good or bad. Think Jerry Moran, Mike Crapo or Bill Cassidy.

On the other hand, Kobach is very ambitious, and would have a new platform to build his national profile, likely in advance of a Trump-esque presidential run in 2024 or 2028.

I've tried to explain this as well, the poster you are responding to seems to be under the impression that a voting record is the only thing that matters when electing a senator, something that you and I disagree with.

I’m well aware of the raised platform Kobach would get in the event he won the general election, but who cares? If Republicans are suicidal enough to nominate him for President, have at it. The dude lost Kansas by 5 points, for Christ sake.

And it’s not like having an obnoxious Republican asshole in the Senate is going to suddenly undermine the “institution” of the Senate. Take it from someone who is blessed to be represented by Ted Cruz. John Cornyn might be less showy than him, but at the end of the day, he’s just as bad as Cruz. I think it’s well clear to anyone who has paid any bit of attention that we’re well past that point in American history.

The false dilemma you’re posing here re: Kobach vs. Marshall is really as simple as “do Democrats want to run against someone they have a 50% chance of beating or someone they have a 5% chance of beating?” You don’t have to be a poker player to know which one you’d rather take if you're a Democrat

Right? Kobach is a more evil & objectively worse person to have in the Senate, but he & Marshall would vote the same & have the exact same policy impact in the Senate anyway, so Kobach getting elected doesn't really bother me, not least since Kobach would actually serve to worsen the national GOP's brand overall. I'm all in for Kobach if him being nominated gives Bollier a great chance compared to worse chance she'd probably have against Marshall.

Even the personal opinions of the most hackish politicians matter to some degree: they might both hold the party line, but Kobach and Marshall would provide different influences what that line turned out to be on any given issue. Local Democrats should relish the electoral opportunity if they do end up with Kobach, but they shouldn't call out to Cthulhu if the Republican Party wants to act a bit more responsibly (which probably needs to happen if the current system of governance is to improve in the long term).

Clinton boosted Trump using the rationale in your post.

Yes, I agree that Kobach getting the seat would be akin to a national disgrace, but I refuse to give in to the idea that we should favor the alternative, which is basically sacrificing a free seat to the Republicans, because at the end of the day, Kobach & Marshall will vote the same way on every single issue (hell, if anything, Kobach is no different that Marshall: his public perception is worse, but they're both on board for the same terrible policies), & I'd much rather actually have a shot at this seat than not.

At the end of the day, all of this comes down to the dichotomy of selfishness on the part of individuals within the 2 parties. Democrats tend to step aside "for the good of the cause," like Pete & Amy. Republicans like Kobach don't: they cast it all as a large struggle against the establishment, dig in, & ride their flaming carcasses of campaigns right into the ground. Hence why Democrats sit in the Senate representing states like West Virginia & Alabama & Montana, casting votes against the McConnell agenda in the Senate.

The long term lesson from all of this should be learned by the Republicans: that they need to stop letting their anger at & their lack of trust in the establishment get the better of them in allowing themselves to be manipulated by charlatans, snake oil salesmen, & extremists. Just like AL-2017 or MO-2012 before this, there are plenty of other candidates to choose from, including those with solid conservative credentials, & just like in those cases, it seems like they'll select their worst possible option yet again.

[brucejoel99]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

[brucejoel99]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

It could very well matter in terms of what happens in the Republican primary, yes.

[brucejoel99]

Peter Thiel spends $850k more on supporting Kobach and attacking Marshall. Brings the total spent by group to $1.1 million. This must be a close race if people are amping up the spending this intensely.

Can't believe he'd give anything (let alone that much) to somebody who'd actively reduce his civil rights if he could.

[brucejoel99]

KKKobach will win despite Marshall's lead in the polls. Not even a Trump endorsement would help Marshall.

Well, no. It might help him, & it's probably the only thing that could actually "help" him at this point.

[brucejoel99]

Prediction: KKKobach narrowly wins, and is then narrowly defeated by Bollier in the general election.

[brucejoel99]

Recent NRSC poll has 33/30 Marshall and their polling had Marshall comfortably ahead till Schumer's PAC blasted him.

"Comfortably ahead" is a useless classification, but if the Dem meddling brought the race from (presumptively) a clear Marshall lead to a virtual tie, I'd imagine Kobach will lead in the same-day vote.

What do you think the end result ends up being?

[brucejoel99]

KC Star said no, ballots have to be postmarked by Friday.

If it's not a close race, could we see a winner tonight on the basis of ballots already received & counted?

[brucejoel99]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

[brucejoel99]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

Doug Jones was also a stronger nominee than Barbara Bollier is.

Pretty sure that wouldn't matter. On the scale of their heinousness, I'm pretty sure Roy Moore was also a stronger nominee than the literal Joseph Goebbels could ever be, so I'm confident that Bollier would have no problem beating - & let me just make clear we all understand who we're talking about - the literal Joseph Goebbels.

[brucejoel99]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

Yeah, she (& Bullock too, for that matter) would certainly be more of a Manchin/Sinema/Tester/Jones/McCaskill/Heitkamp than a Bernie/Warren.

[brucejoel99]

Bollier announces endorsements from 75 (former) GOP leaders/representatives. It was impressive when Paul Davis did this in '18, but after Kelly doing it and now Bollier, with the lists all being very close to one another, it loses some of it's effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1297926914338893824?s=20

She is - without a doubt - one of the best Senate recruits this year: not only is a doctor & a former Republican wonderful for the current political climate, but getting endorsed by Republicans even after Kobach was eliminated is some badass big tent energy.

[brucejoel99]

Bollier is really pushing the "Republicans for Bollier" message and the ads work - very impressive. It makes sense she was able to get them to do this and I expect more - she has been a Republican for most of her life and worked very closely with these people, it goes deeper than just "she is willing to work across the aisle" as she was on the same side of the aisle with them for many years. I've heard whispers that Bollier's internals have her ahead right now, but don't know any more at this point.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1297896508663234560?s=20

Hopefully proof that this is the right message for her to have a shot in KS.