2017 French Presidential Election

[brucejoel99]

I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995

Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon

Yeah, he very much did lol... they likely just switched the names up (assuming the point of the article still stands & that Donzy is indeed the bellweather it's claimed to be)

[brucejoel99]

What are the odds of each of these match-ups happening?

Macron/Le Pen
Macron/Fillon
Macron/Mélenchon
Fillon/Le Pen
Mélenchon/Fillon
Mélenchon/Le Pen

I'm guessing something like:
Macron/Le Pen - 77%
Mélenchon/Le Pen - 9%
Fillon/Le Pen - 8%
Macron/Fillon - 3%
Macron/Mélenchon - 2%
Mélenchon/Fillon - 1%

Macron/Le Pen - 85%
Macron/Fillon - 5%
Macron/Mélenchon - NOPE
Fillon/Le Pen - 10%
Mélenchon/Fillon - NOPE
Mélenchon/Le Pen - NOPE