Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[SCNCmod]

I'm late to the FL discussion, but assuming an 80% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018, what % of the electorate has voted and what % is left? What is the effect if it's a 75% or 85% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018?

It appears (via myflorida.com)...

Florida In Person Early Vote Total: 2.2 Million (Dems +10K)
Florida Vote by Mail Total: 2.25 Million (Repub's +70K)
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Total Florida Votes so far: 4.25 Million
Rep:  1,845,000
Dem: 1,785,000
Ind: 800,000


2018 Florida Votes: 9 Million.  So assuming 80% of 2018, would indicate that 7.2 Million.... Meaning roughly 3 Million will either vote on Tuesday or Mail in their requested vote-by-mail ballot (1.2 Million VBM ballots yet to be returned).

So, Assuming 80% of 2016 vote:
60% Have already Voted
40% Still to Vote

[SCNCmod]

Florida Vote by Mail Stats (VBM totals are included in the Early Votes totals)

Requested... Dems & Repubs each requested roughly 1 Million Ballots, Ind's requested 500k ballots)

Total Returned....
Dem: 560K
Rep: 620K
Ind: 160K

Total Requested, but Yet to be Returned
Dem: 500K
Rep: 380K
Ind: 330K

*VBM Must be received by 7PM on Election day... so some of these will come in either via Mail or Dropped Off on Monday & Tuesday.

[SCNCmod]

If Souls to the Polls is strong today, Democrats could overtake the GOP

Are all Counties in Florida allowing Early Voting to run through Nov 4th (Today)?  The state's website says:

voting periods for 2018 are:
General Election:  October 27 – November 3, 2018

In addition, each county Supervisor of Elections may offer optional days of early voting in addition to the mandatory early voting period.  Each Supervisor of Elections may choose from one or more of the following days for 2018:  October 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 and/or November 4, 2018

[SCNCmod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

In theory- the Under 40 vote have gained 11% of the share of electorate. (That's a 640,000 increase in share... so far).

In 2016... Trump won the state by 800,000 votes out of 8.5M votes cast.

No exact science there... but with that big of an increase in the Under 40% of the electorate (which one would assume is very heavily Beto)...it the % share holds...  you start to see a way for Beto to make up an 800,000 deficit (actually less is you assume Total votes in 2018 will be less than 2016).

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I've thought Beto had a better than 50% chance of winning the past couple of week (I just can't imagine Beto having that much energy and buzz and not winning... esp with such a lack of energy for Ted).   But seeing what such an increase in under 40s can mean in actual votes- Now a really think Beto is more likely to win than Ted.

[SCNCmod]

8 ) Tennessee early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +663% (!!!)
30-39: +431%
40-49: +337%
50-64: +241%
65+: +244%
Af-Ams: +243%
Caucasian: +333% (!!!)
Unmarried: +340%
Never voted: +930% (!!!)

Even though this is one of the 1st competitive statewide races in a while (pointed out in this thread)... these #'s are abnormally high.  Especially never voted.

I can't tell if they are better for Bredesen or Blackburn?  Does anyone have a read on who they are more likely to benefit?