Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[SCNCmod]

Over 10,000 people voted in Davidson County, TN (Nashville) on the first day of early voting.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/17/nashville-early-voting-turnout-midterms-2018/1675688002/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not bad.

Overall... What are the likely indications (if any) that could be drawn for early voting numbers in TN as a whole?

[SCNCmod]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

Why would anyone call on the other side to give up?

[SCNCmod]

I've tried to keep up somewhat with this Early voting thread... but all the references to specific counties, etc is a bit over my head....

Can someone provide a quick summary of Early voting thus far in competitive Senate states- mainly any conclusion/ indications that can be drawn? ...NV, AZ, MO, FL (and if there is anything notable in numbers from TN, ND, TX, IN, MT).

[SCNCmod]

On Texas

We've seen this Movie before in 2016 with the high Turnout and Hillary still couldn't win the State.

In fact, since Obamas 1st win Democrats desperatly trying to turn Texas Blue and it hasn't materialized. Stop this please.

Regarding Texas, obviously its an uphill climb for Beto- But one possible difference this year compared to Hillary losing by 9%... Beto will likely get a larger % of Latino voters- and Beto seems to be getting a larger amount of Republicans (and some of these are silent votes, depending on where they live).

[SCNCmod]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

The total Independents were around 270,000.  If Republicans are up by 75,000 (not factoring in that Simena is likely to get more Republican votes ... than McSally would get Dems)

....Then to make up that 75k, Dems need 63% of Independents.

What % of Independants to Dems typically get?

[SCNCmod]

Democrats have been consistently winning 60-75% of independents in high-turnout special elections all across this country for the past 2 years. I'm not sure why everybody is obsessing over simple D-R turnout figures; it is not going to paint a full picture. I'm glad we don't have them in my state.

It seems like Dems getting somewhere in the low 60% of Independents will likely be the key in many/most of these Senate races.   So I hope the special election % holds true for Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Indiana.

[SCNCmod]

I just look forward to Twitter on election night when o'Rourke takes an early lead after the initial early vote dump. Only to have that optimism whither away as the rurals and ed vote come in.

Judging from the early vote data so far, it is more likely to be the opposite - R's doing well in early vote and Beto better on election day. That could change somewhat - in particular Dems do tend to vote more on the weekend, and maybe towards the end of the EV period, but so far Rs are doing what they need to do in the TX early vote.

If Beto were to somehow pull out a miracle he would need Republican crossover votes.  I assume there is no way to know what % of Republican EVs are crossover voters.  So In a race like Texas- I'm not sure how helpful EV numbers are... since Beto was always going to have to hope for crossover votes (like younger suburban women... which some say he has made inroads with).

[SCNCmod]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that many people say they've learned from their mistakes in trusting political analysts...without considering that maybe the analysts have learned something from their own mistakes?

One potential issue with polling this year... that I wonder about- 2016 was somewhat of a pendulum swing that some pollsters missed.  If the pendulum swings back to some extent & pollsters have readjusted models to 2016.... they may be caught behind again (overestimating the trump supporter in their models)

[SCNCmod]

What are the chances that Dems get 60% of the (NPA/Ind) vote in Missouri, NV & AZ?   

[SCNCmod]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana? ... judging from polls, this race seems to come down to what % of the vote the Libertarian gets (if over 5% things start looking better for Donnally).

[SCNCmod]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

[SCNCmod]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

No, but the mailers aggressively pushing the libertarian candidate would signal that the Democrats likely see Braun leading and that Donnelly will end up well below 50

If polls are even close to accurate- It looks like Donnelly needs for the Libertarian candidate to get around 6% or better.  If this how you read the polls?

[SCNCmod]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)
2. Texas: 136.1% (Beto effect?)
3. Indiana: 127.9%
4. Nevada: 114.4%
5. Georgia: 108.8%
6. Minnesota: 106%
7. Delaware: 103.2%
8. North Carolina: 94.9%
9. New Mexico: 93.5%
10. Montana & Louisiana: 87.6%

35th and last: Oregon at 23.9%

Only 35 states have numbers/percentages so far. I guess most of the other states (including Arizona) don't have early voting or it hasn't started yet.

Numbers from electproject.org

With Indiana being #3 on this list... Is the more fervent support for Braun or Donnelly (or the Libertarian)?  I thought this race was somewhat of a sleeper- surprised to see it getting such a high early vote.  How do ppl on the ground in Indiana view this large early vote?

[SCNCmod]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)
2. Texas: 136.1% (Beto effect?)
3. Indiana: 127.9%
4. Nevada: 114.4%
5. Georgia: 108.8%
6. Minnesota: 106%
7. Delaware: 103.2%
8. North Carolina: 94.9%
9. New Mexico: 93.5%
10. Montana & Louisiana: 87.6%

35th and last: Oregon at 23.9%

Only 35 states have numbers/percentages so far. I guess most of the other states (including Arizona) don't have early voting or it hasn't started yet.

Numbers from electproject.org

With Indiana being #3 on this list... Is the more fervent support for Braun or Donnelly (or the Libertarian)?  I thought this race was somewhat of a sleeper- surprised to see it getting such a high early vote.  How do ppl on the ground in Indiana view this large early vote?

Bear in mind that in 2014, neither the governor nor either senator was up for election, and the only races on the ballot were lower-tier executives and legislative/House.

That makes sense.

[SCNCmod]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)
2. Texas: 136.1% (Beto effect?)
3. Indiana: 127.9%
4. Nevada: 114.4%
5. Georgia: 108.8%
6. Minnesota: 106%
7. Delaware: 103.2%
8. North Carolina: 94.9%
9. New Mexico: 93.5%
10. Montana & Louisiana: 87.6%

35th and last: Oregon at 23.9%

Only 35 states have numbers/percentages so far. I guess most of the other states (including Arizona) don't have early voting or it hasn't started yet.

Numbers from electproject.org

With Indiana being #3 on this list... Is the more fervent support for Braun or Donnelly (or the Libertarian)?  I thought this race was somewhat of a sleeper- surprised to see it getting such a high early vote.  How do ppl on the ground in Indiana view this large early vote?

Same question for TN?  How do ppl on the ground view the large early vote?  (Energy for Blackburn, Energy against Blackburn, energy to save Bredesen's campaign, is more of the early vote coming from Nashville/ or from Blackburn's district?)

[SCNCmod]

DataGuy- I could see that holding this year... because isn't the Generic Congressional ballot 6-8% pro-Dems.  So if the actually number came in at 4-6% pro-Dem ... your hypothesis would hold.

[SCNCmod]

I took a look at the amount the final RCP average was off the actual results in 2016 in some of these states.  This is what I found:

FL   +1.0 R
IN   +8.3 R
MO +7.5 R
TX   -3.0 R
AZ   -0.5 R
NV   -3.2 R

If this were added/subtracted from the current RCP results, the Republicans would take IN, MO, TX and AZ (by 0.2). The Democrats would take FL and NV.

I looked at these numbers earlier... but for a different reason.  Since elections tend to have a pendulum swing effect... I was wondering if polling models would over-compensate for 2016 polling errors.  If so, this would lead to polls in IN & MO being tilted a bit too Republican this year... and polls in NV & TX to a lesser extent being slightly tilted Dem.  Polls in AZ & FL staying about the same.

If over-correcting is the case- all of these Senate races really are razor edge close this year (other than Texas... but Texas has its own polling challenges this year in trying to gauge the Beto effect).  The states potentially most affected by over-correcting would be IN & MO, since they were outside the margin of error in 2016. (If an over-correcting occurred, polls could indicate that IN & MO would go Dem this year).

I would assume that the 2 states that pollsters definitely changed their models for... are IN & MO.  The question is how much did they change their models... and how much, if any, is there a swing back among voters in these states.

[SCNCmod]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

[SCNCmod]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

Dems on pace to whittle the advantage down to R+7 tomorrow which would be about the same as the 2016 EV gap

Considering Dems lost AZ in 2016... is this a worrisome early vote result for Dems?

[SCNCmod]

Are the early vote number in Florida as dire for Dems (Nelson/ Gillum) as twitter is making it sound?

Who on twitter is saying things are dire?

Well at least that Dems are much further behind that in 2016... when Dems were ahead in EV and still lost FL.

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

Dems on pace to whittle the advantage down to R+7 tomorrow which would be about the same as the 2016 EV gap

Considering Dems lost AZ in 2016... is this a worrisome early vote result for Dems?

Note that Indys broke nicely for the Rs and Trump in 2016 because of an anti-Hillary climate.

Today, Indys are breaking strongly Dem - which could overcome even a moderate R turnout advantage. See the special elections in AZ and elsewhere, where Indys broke about 2-1 for the Dems.

I keep forgetting about IND vote.  Which I do think goes more to Dems this year.  From what I could tell playing with the number a week or so ago.... If Dems get over 60% (or the low 60s)... Then in addition to NV, they should be good in FL, AZ, and probably even MO.... and would at least keep them in the game with a chance at the senate (if TX-TN- or ND pull a rabbit out of the hat).

[SCNCmod]

Cumulative Texas early vote report, in-person + mail-in/absentee.

Clinton Counties

Harris County: 36.59% of reg. voters, 87.56% of 2016.
Dallas County: 39.66% of reg. voters, 96.33% of 2016.
Bexar County: 37.71% of reg. voters, 87.77% of 2016.
Travis County: 47.43% of reg. voters, 97.45% of 2016.
El Paso County: 30.51% of reg. voters, 92.46% of 2016.
Fort Bend County: 46.14% of reg. voters, 93.30% of 2016.
Hidalgo County: 31.68% of reg. voters, 81.93% of 2016.
Cameron County: 26.37% of reg. voters, 84.96% of 2016.

Trump Counties

Tarrant County: 41.49% of reg. voters, 90.41% of 2016.
Collin County: 49.39% of reg. voters, 94.85% of 2016.
Denton County: 45.96% of reg. voters, 95.29% of 2016.
Montgomery County: 41.42% of reg. voters, 88.08% of 2016.
Williamson County: 48.97% of reg. voters, 100.01% of 2016.
Galveston County: 42.41% of reg. voters, 88.84% of 2016.
Nueces County: 32.96% of reg. voters, 90.36% of 2016.

Averages

Trump Counties: 43.23% of reg. voters, 92.55% of 2016.
Clinton Counties: 37.01% of reg. voters, 90.22% of 2016.


Overall, Trump counties saw higher turnout both in terms of registered voters and relative to 2016's numbers.

Drilling into specific regions, one of the most energized counties was Travis County, which is bad news for the GOP since it's heavily Democratic. But on the flip side, Republicans also have reason to be optimistic due to lackluster enthusiasm in overwhelmingly Democratic South Texas. That suggests that perhaps the Hispanic voter surge, which is said to be coming every election year, might not too big after all.


Its hard to know what to think about all of these early numbers.  One thought regarding higher turnout in Trump counties... Dems usually do not campaign in many of these area.  Since Beto has reached out to Trump counties... how much of the turnout in those areas are due to Beto voters who usually do not get much attention?  And on the flip side- Cruz isn't reaching out as much to Clinton counties- which could explain the more normal turnout in those counties.

Cruz may indeed win- but if Beto wins it will be because of cross over voters... So if Beto were to win- we would look back at these numbers and say Beto crossover voters make up a decent amount of turnout in the Trump counties.

Also- Beto should do really well among Ind's based on his style of campaigning.  What are those numbers and how do they factor in this year is the % that votes Dems moves up a fair amount.

[SCNCmod]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).


If anyone has the Day-by-Day EV numbers from Florida... It would be interesting to compared the totals as of October 31st and as of Nov 2nd ... to the "already voted" numbers in the polls.