Justice Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY*

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Patrick J. Smyth, who Ford claims was in the room during the incident, has now said it never happened: https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/3rd-person-room-kavanaugh-attack-comes-forward-blows-story-apart/?utm_source=push&utm_medium=westernjournalism&utm_content=2018-09-20&utm_campaign=manualpost

So now we have the word of 3 people vs. the word of 1 person. NOT saying Beet is correct about this being some decades long revenge plot (in fact Beet shouldn't even be allowed to be a mod), but unless there's some material evidence, which there likely isn't, this is looking kind of fishy. Maybe Ford is misremembering who assaulted her?

"Well, both the alleged gunman and his two accomplices say they didn't do it, and we only have the word of one surviving victim, so guess that's that."

Patrick J. Smyth wouldn't be considered an accomplice, especially since according to what Ford has said, he wasn't in the room.

But, assuming he is a good friend of Kavanaugh- he is certainly more inclined to just say "he has no recollection of the incident, etc" ... especially since he is not under oath or anything.

Why would some make up a lie about kavanaugh ... and include 3 of his friends in the lie (knowing they would likely deny, or support their friend by not remembering.  If it was a total lie- seems like she would just say Kavanaugh did this in a room when they were by themselves.  Not to mention she passed a polygraph performed by an ex FBI agent. (in August- so it was almost certainly done at the request of Feinstein... to make sure this wasn't an empty accusation.  So the FBI agent was most likely looking for the truth at the behest of a 3rd party trying to verify the veracity of her claim.

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I never realized Gorsuch & Kavanaugh were at Georgetown Prep together (Kavanaugh was 2 years ahead of Gorsuch)...  I assume they're fairly good friends since (when they were there)  its supposedly a school with  50 or 60 students per class/year. 

I also wonder if Neil Gorsuch & Christine Blasey Ford knew each other very well... They appear to have been the same age... and both a small private schools that had social functions together and had the same circle of friends.

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Patrick J. Smyth, who Ford claims was in the room during the incident, has now said it never happened: https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/3rd-person-room-kavanaugh-attack-comes-forward-blows-story-apart/?utm_source=push&utm_medium=westernjournalism&utm_content=2018-09-20&utm_campaign=manualpost

So now we have the word of 3 people vs. the word of 1 person. NOT saying Beet is correct about this being some decades long revenge plot (in fact Beet shouldn't even be allowed to be a mod), but unless there's some material evidence, which there likely isn't, this is looking kind of fishy. Maybe Ford is misremembering who assaulted her?

"Well, both the alleged gunman and his two accomplices say they didn't do it, and we only have the word of one surviving victim, so guess that's that."

Patrick J. Smyth wouldn't be considered an accomplice, especially since according to what Ford has said, he wasn't in the room.

But, assuming he is a good friend of Kavanaugh- he is certainly more inclined to just say "he has no recollection of the incident, etc" ... especially since he is not under oath or anything.

Why would some make up a lie about kavanaugh ... and include 3 of his friends in the lie (knowing they would likely deny, or support their friend by not remembering.  If it was a total lie- seems like she would just say Kavanaugh did this in a room when they were by themselves.  Not to mention she passed a polygraph performed by an ex FBI agent. (in August- so it was almost certainly done at the request of Feinstein... to make sure this wasn't an empty accusation.  So the FBI agent was most likely looking for the truth at the behest of a 3rd party trying to verify the veracity of her claim.

Polygraphs are garbage, that's a known fact.

Not reliable in court & being garbage ... are 2 entirely different things. 

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Another question I have is... why was she at a "small party" with three boys none of which went to her school or is apparently willing to vouch for her decades later? Who did she go to this party with? Who invited her? How did she get home? The only reason I ask is because Brett, Mark, and PJ are all students at Georgetown Prep who still like each other decades later. Christine is the odd one out.

They all went to an all boys school... she went to an all girls school that had social events together and who's students were in somewhat of the same circle of friends (so any girls they were friends with... none of these girls went to their school).  Also- she was 2 years younger. (same age as Gorsuch- who also went to Georgetown Prep).  So I'm sure the answer to your question will come out in her testimony- or at least what would have been to typical situation in their social circle that lead to her being at such a party or setting ... and my bet is the answer will seem fairly normal.

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That Ed Whelan tweetstorm, holy crap.

Here is something I wrote on Twitter yesterday... which was somewhat in jest... but maybe not so quixotic after looking up Ed Whelan's post (which is referred to in a WaPo article as a possible preview of Kavanaugh's defend.. or something like that).

my tweet: "I would not be shocked if Kavanaugh et al find a male classmate to come forward to take the fall by claiming to be the guy that assaulted Dr Ford (& therefore Ford misremembered). It won't work- but I could see them trying something like this!"

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Here is a pretty good NYT article that was just posted: (debunk 5 viral rumors about Dr. Ford ... which includes the fact that Kavanaugh's mom did rule on a case involving Dr. Ford's parent house... but her ruling actually allowed the to keep their house... not lose it!)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/19/us/politics/christine-blasey-ford-kavanaughs-fact-check.html

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That Ed Whelan tweetstorm, holy crap.

I just saw a quote by Dr. Ford to the WaPo regarding Whelan's tweet:

Dr. Ford:
“I knew them both, and socialized with” them, Ford said, adding that she had once visited the other classmate in the hospital. “There is zero chance that I would confuse them.”

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I would def want
1) to not be seated beside Kavanaugh... 2) Testify 2nd (reasoning below)... 3) And not be subject to outside counsel just because I was a female (and by counsel- free to deploy the most underhanded tactics they can come up with- and with no blowback to the Senators),

2) If I were Dr. Ford, I would want to go after Kavanaugh also... its Dr. Ford's account that is being debated/ examined here (since Kavanaugh says it never happened).  So I'm sure she wants to be able to respond to any "alternative theories", etc put out by Kavanaugh to say she is not being honest (like the Whelen mistaken identity theory).

3) Outside counsel? ....I keep hearing: this is the senate's job, not the FBI, let the senate do their job, etc.  And regarding bringing in outside counsel simply because she is a woman & the Senators are men.  Why should she be subject to outside counsel (just because she is a woman and they are men) in a Senate hearing- outside counsel who is accountable to noone....and who can treat her as unhanded as they want with no blowback on the Senators.  If she is going to be subjected to this type of legal proceeding- she should have the benefit of a full law enforcement examination of all parties involved...including an interrogation by legal counsel (or the FBI) of the people she named in her letter.  

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So, uhm, this is semi-related, but, I wonder what the OTHER justices think about this. They might have to serve for decades with a guy that might have tried to rape a girl. Even if they rationalize it away, it's still lingering there in the back of their heads.

Well Gorsuch was at Georgetown prep with Kav.. and was the same age as Dr. Ford- so he probably knows both of them.  And Kav helped get Roberts on the court and has know him for a long time.

I know it shouldn't matter... but having 2 consecutive white male judges- who both clerked for the same justice & who both went to the same- very elite, small all boys prep school (at the same time)... strikes me as a completely lack of a variety of life experience to add to (and consume 2/9th of) the most powerful court in the world.

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Innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Love to see what is put into evidence -- A whole lot of nothing.

This is not about sending Kavanaugh to jail. It’s about whether the country wants his stink on its highest court. Surely the threshold is different.

This is a very valid point that so many tend to skip over.  But even more- Imagine if Kavanaugh was being considered as a potential CEO of a Public Company.  I dare say he would still be in the running.  Also- if Senators aren't 51% convinced that Kavanaugh is telling the truth... to me that's enough of a potential that he is lying under oath to the senate- and obviously disqualifying for being 1 of the 9 most powerful judges in the World.

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So we have:

Dr Ford's allegation.

Remirez (who came forward to say Kav's best friend Mark Judge is lying regarding his account and characterization of the their High School partying).

Who/ what is the 3rd accusation or person to come forward?

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What is most likely going to sink Kav's nom the quickest- is lying (blanket denials) and the strategy of gross mischaracterization (dishonest) trying to paint him as a tea-totalling choir boy who would never dream of being drunk or being inappropriate around a girl.

Even if one were to look pass the specific allegation from HS & specific acts in the accounts in the New Yorker etc...

A big problem for Kavanaugh will be the (strategy of presenting himself as and) blanket denial of basically anything short of choirboy behavior in High School & College.   Even his best friend (who now basically denies Kavanaugh was ever anything short of perfect and sober) writes in his memoir of wild parties with Kavanaugh being passed out drunk and puking in cars.  Which seems consistent with The New Yorker accounts (who really are not accusing Kavanaugh of any crime... but rather disputing the image that Kavanaugh and his supporters have presented.

Had Kavanaugh at least acknowledge that he had some wild times in school... he would at least not be faced with the Huge Problem of at the very least appearing to clearly lie and make misleading comments about his past behaviour in HS and College. (something that Collins, Flake, and likely Murkowski will have a problem with... especially since Collins happened to have a phone appointment lined up with Kav shortly after the initial allegations from HS were made public... at which time he also issued the blanket denial, etc to Collins)

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Even if one were to look pass the specific allegation from HS & specific acts in the accounts in the New Yorker etc...

A big problem for Kavanaugh will be the (strategy of presenting himself as and) blanket denial of basically anything short of choirboy behavior in High School & College.   Even his best friend (who now basically denies Kavanaugh was ever anything short of perfect and sober) writes in his memoir of wild parties with Kavanaugh being passed out drunk and puking in cars.  Which seems consistent with The New Yorker accounts (who really are not accusing Kavanaugh of any crime... but rather disputing the image that Kavanaugh and his supporters have presented.

Had Kavanaugh at least acknowledge that he had some wild times in school... he would at least not be faced with the Huge Problem of at the very least appearing to clearly lie and make misleading comments about his past behaviour in HS and College. (something that Collins, Flake, and likely Murkowski will have a problem with... especially since Collins happened to have a phone appointment lined up with Kav shortly after the initial allegations from HS were made public... at which time he also issued the blanket denial, etc to Collins)

He didn’t write about Brett Kavanaugh. He wrote about “Bart O’Kavanaugh.” Clearly not the same person whatsoever. No sir!

Oh yeah... I forgot... "Brett" is the Choir Boy alter ego of Mark Judge's best friend!

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If Avenatti's stuff that he is hinting at pans out, that will definitely be the worst of anything that has come up so far.

It's Avenatti so who knows, but if it is, wow!

How would you ask Kavanaugh what FFFFFFFFouth of July means... and actually get an answer?  He will obviously lie and say it means nothing. Will probably just say it means he is excited for 4th of July (or perhaps better chosen words to mean the same thing).

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RUBIO (!!!!!!!!!) refuses to promise support for Kavanaugh:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think Rubio is still planning on being on the 2024 ticket (either as the nom with Haley as his VP or Vice Versa)... Not that this will necessarily happen- But almost every move he makes can be seen through a delicate balancing act to makes the above 2024 goal ...remain somewhat viable.

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Does anyone have a copy of Gorsuch's Year Book page?  (It would be interesting to compare it to Kavanaugh's ... since they were just 2 years apart at G-Town Prep)

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Does anyone have a copy of Gorsuch's Year Book page?  (It would be interesting to compare it to Kavanaugh's ... since they were just 2 years apart at G-Town Prep)

Gorsuch's page seems to be much more "sober" and respectful than that of Kavanaugh.

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"Also, he did not have “anything close to sexual intercourse in high school or for many years thereafter.”

Righttttttttttt

Yeah this actually makes me very seriously doubt Kavanaugh. Quite a bit more than I did before. Pretty sure this is a lie.

I think this could definitely be true (Kav was a Virgin)- and in no way refute the 2 current claims.  
(although unlikely for many reasons- I could see if this is true- them trying to come up with a strategy that he has this 1 question answered on a lie detector test.. to try to say the rest did not happen)

1) Neither allegation involved Intercourse

2) Both actions could easily fit the actions of a sexually inexperienced G-Town Prep student in the 80s who was an "out of control" "belligerent" drunk... trying to fit in and/or live up to the image of his gang of friends from Prep... who seem like the popular group of guys who were captains of their sports teams, etc. (Notice both actions were claimed to have been done in front of other people... ie Showing Off) ... (and could have easily been the actions of someone who was sexually inexperienced or sexually awkward)

**Also regarding the "Renata Alumni" yearbook joke (that they were all alumni of the had sex with Renata club)... The new NYT article claims that Renata (who previously signed the letter supporting Kavanaugh... but no longer supports him) was unaware of these yearbook references by Kavanaugh and his friends... and that she never had sex with any of them.  Also the article has other guys who claim they even objected at the time to such treatment/slander of this Renata individual (who was in the extended Social Circle of all of them).

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Too bad Kavanaugh didn't lose his Virginity in HS or College... Otherwise he may not have resulted to sexually assaulting girls to get his rocks off.

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I realize Avenatti is a blowhard... But are there any rumors regarding the validity of Avenatti's supposed client?   or what the accusation is?

My guess (or the impression I sort of got)- was his client/clients were going to provide a narrative that Kavanaugh's group of friends had a practice of getting girls drunk to take advantage of them... and that Kavanaugh participated in the process of getting them drunk, egging on the friends, etc... rather than participating in the sexual part (granted getting them drunk  & egging some of the guys on is almost just as bad...and if seen as credible would certainly sink his nomination... and if true provides a pattern of behaviour/ party culture that would support Dr. Ford's claim).

Is this the impression others got- or do you think there was a more direct physical claim relating to Kavanaugh himself

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McConnell has screwed Dr Ford and Dem Senator X2.  In addition to bringing in a female outside Prosecutor to do their jobs ... he has allotted only 5 minutes per Senator.  So their prosecutor will close to an hour to question (cross examine) Dr Ford... plenty of time for continuity of questions.  

Whereas Dem Senators will only have time for a few questions each- esp considering Kavanaugh has definitely been practicing how to filibuster the Senator's questions.  At the very least Kavanaugh will take double the time it takes to ask a question- to draw out his answer...Which really puts each Senator down to a little over 1.5 minutes to ask their questions.

Senators should at the very least been alloted 10 minutes to ask questions so the Senators could ask more than 2 or 3 questions and have a modicum of continuity- considering the (without exception) practice for a 1 day hearing is for the Senators to ask the questions themselves.

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Has anyone looked at the calendars from the summer of '82 that Kav's attorney submitted to the Senate committee this morning as "supporting evidence" that he was not there?

(Obviously this is a ridiculous way to prove not going to a party... esp since you plan out your day... put game days, out of town days, school meetings etc. ... you don't tend to record get-togethers and "lets go to whoever's house to drink tonight" type parties which tend to be decided just before they happen")

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I still believe that Republicans will find a way to confirm Kavanaugh.

I think this new affidavit makes the stakes much more serious for Kavanaugh. At this point, losing a SC seat is not his biggest potential loss. His reputation is shredded and his existing court seat and possibly freedom are at risk. He needs to seriously consider getting himself out of the news.

Seems a bit late for that. If he didn't do what is alleged, I certainly would do what he is doing. He has no choice. And if I did, I would have asked that my name be withdrawn at the first indication that any of this was surfacing. In fact, I would have deemed seeking the SCOTUS seat far too risky myself.

I really have trouble believing the gang rape charge myself. Now K is 19, and in college. If he did, he is a true redux of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

Based on the wording of the statement (& Avanatii's response when asked about the  specifics in an interview a few minutes ago, etc)...

1) I think when Avanatii &/ or his client are pressed to clarify ... the accusation is that Kavanaugh was "involved in" & "present" during the Train rape.  

2) The "involved in"... is alleging that Kavanaugh was involved in helping get the girls drunk, spiking the "punch" etc.  (had Kavanaugh been involved specifically in the act of raping his client ... it would have been very clearly and specifically stated).

2) "Present" ... meaning Present at the party and Present in the vicinity of the area/ room where the "Train" was happening.

3) The timing would've been his Jr & Sr Years of High School.

4) Also- the implication - via Avanatii interview today- seemed to be that She does know the names other the "guys" very well.  I'm not sure if Judge was one of the guys involved in Train raping her (putting something in her drink so she was to a point not to be able to give consent).

5) She told a couple of people soon after she was raped by the friends... and they are apparently willing to confirm.

6) She also claims that Kav was often beligent when drunk and often a mean drunk.  And that he often was inappropriate in talking trash about girls in a sexual way.  

7) And often would grind up against girls (unwantedly).  And would grab/ pull down girls clothes (ie pull down their shirts to see their breasts).

...BTW- I'm in no what saying getting the girls drunk for some of his other friends to rape... is any better than the rape itself... I'm just clarifying what my understanding of what the specific claim is based on the Avanatii interview a few minutes ago.

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I still believe that Republicans will find a way to confirm Kavanaugh.

I think this new affidavit makes the stakes much more serious for Kavanaugh. At this point, losing a SC seat is not his biggest potential loss. His reputation is shredded and his existing court seat and possibly freedom are at risk. He needs to seriously consider getting himself out of the news.

Seems a bit late for that. If he didn't do what is alleged, I certainly would do what he is doing. He has no choice. And if I did, I would have asked that my name be withdrawn at the first indication that any of this was surfacing. In fact, I would have deemed seeking the SCOTUS seat far too risky myself.

I really have trouble believing the gang rape charge myself. Now K is 19, and in college. If he did, he is a true redux of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

Based on the wording of the statement (& Avanatii's response when asked about the gang rape specifics, etc)... I think when Avanatii &/ or his client are pressed to clarify ... the accusation is that Kavanaugh was "involved in" & "present" during the gang rape.  And the timing would've been his Jr & Sr Years of High School.

... but the involved in is alleging that Kavanaugh was involved in helping get the girls drunk, spiking the "punch" etc.  (had Kavanaugh been involved specifically in the act of raping his client ... it would have been very clearly and specifically stated).

Also- the implication was via Avanatii interview today- that She does know the names other the "guys" very well.  I'm not sure if Judge was one of the guys involved in Train raping her (putting something in her drink so she was to a point not to be able to give consent).

...BTW- I'm in no what saying getting the girls drunk for some of his other friends to rape... is any better than the rape itself... I'm just clarifying what my understanding of what the specific claim is based on the Avanatii interview a few minutes ago.

By my reading, the allegation is twofold:

1) She saw boys lining up to participate in gang rape of other girls. Those explicitly included Kavanaugh (also Mark Judge). ---- That is an accusation, under penalty of perjury, that Kavanaugh committed rape.

2) She herself was gang raped in this way (but this does not explicitly name Kavanaugh as one of the boys that raped her). I don't know this, but would guess/surmise that maybe she doesn't remember exactly who it was who gang raped her, herself, because her drink had obviously been spiked (in the same way, however, as she earlier describes Kavanaugh and Judge as having participated in spiking drinks).

I agree with both of the points you made... although based on the letter she said she saw Kavanaugh..."in line" ... rather than "in the room"  "going in the room" or rather than outright saying "Kavanaugh actually had sex/raped one of these "train" victims.  (which she would have probably said specifically IMO).........But to me this makes her statement even more believable....saying he was definitely complicit and helped to facilitate these Train Rapes... along with grouping and grinding on girls when Drunk, etc... Without Specifically and absolutely claiming that Kavanaugh definitely Raped the girls etc.  (again- one action is a bad as the other... but she seems to be sticking to what she is sure of).

 .................I'm also probably one of the only people that think his Virgin claim is most likely true  (as being a virgin is actually very much in keeping with all of the allegation the 3 women have made against him... and all seem to almost describe the actions of someone who is sexually awkward/ inexperienced.... they were all actions done with other people in the room vs in an intimate setting.  So I could see the only child Virgin who is a belligerent drunk who assaulted/molested  girls & zero respect for girls in general ...being perfectly consistent.  (even if he was different once he got married and had daughters etc).. But Definitely still a liar!

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Fords attorneys refuse to provide video or charts for her polygraph.

Judiciary committee is reportedly talking to a man who claims he assaulted Ford and described the event in "some detail"!!

The anti-Kavanaugh campaign could be over soon.

It sounds like some random person is trying to throw himself under the bus to protect Kavanaugh or was put up to do this. With that said this probably isn't even true considering you have no link or source other than something on Twitter. Your stories aren't going to save Kavanaugh.

I said even before Whelan's attempt that I could see Kavanaugh's team trying to get a fall guy to claim they were the one who did this.  (granted a completely transparent strategy).  They would need to find a way to say Kavanaugh was innocent & Dr. Ford was not lying (b/c among other things that make her story credible... The type of statement verification polygraph the FBI agent did- is one of the most reliable (& results apparently backed up by 2 different software algorithms). (it not coincident that the initial strategies have all been to accept that "Dr Ford really believes this happened." ... it not being sensitive to Me Too.. but rather knowing how convincing such an FBI polygraph & telling ppl prior to nomination, etc can be at a hearing... especially to the few swing vote Senators & their staffs).

Senator Grassley found out about this claim on Monday... which makes more sense out of why the Republicans chose a Sex Crimes prosecutor to ask question- so the "mistakenly identity by Sex Crime victim" narrative could take shape.

.......too bad the strategy was sand bagged by additional allegations. Also likely sandbagged by the Ed Whelan attempt to independently pull of this strategy... but without a participating fall guy (and against a guy that Dr. Ford happened to have visited in the Hospital, etc).  My guess is there is a good chance the Kavanaugh Team setting up this late breaking fall guy strategy wanted to pull their hair out when they saw the Whelan Tweet storm which actually named someone (and someone who was not their lined up fall guy!).