TX-SEN: True to Form

[SCNCmod]

I think Joaquin Castro is a much stronger candidate.

[SCNCmod]

One thing that has always worried me about O'Rourke (and why I thought Joaquin Castro would have been the stronger candidate)... is the degree to which Cruz will be able to (unfairly) define O'Rourke by his youthful run-ins with the law.

For those in Texas or those know more about Texas politics than I do... Will Cruz be able to make O'Rourke past much of a liability or not? (20 years ago... a couple of arrest (although no convictions) in his mid-20s for burglary & drunk driving )

[SCNCmod]

How will new Ted Cruz ad play in Texas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-MdlR9R4Zs

Will it work to soften his image a bit ... or be seen as sort of using the Hurricane for political gain?

[SCNCmod]

How will new Ted Cruz ad play in Texas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-MdlR9R4Zs

Will it work to soften his image a bit ... or be seen as sort of using the Hurricane for political gain?

I mean it's a good ad.

Is it the type of ad that would pick up votes?

[SCNCmod]

Not that, as the article makes clear, victory comes down to yard signs. But in these places where Democrats haven't been competitive in decades legitimizing the Democrat as a viable choice becomes important.

Agree with this statement... was getting ready to say something very similar.

[SCNCmod]

I think your conclusion regarding name recognition has merit. I disagree with your conclusion that a strong ad campaign will probably not benefit Senator Cruz though. Videos like this one get the message across very well and shorter versions which follow the same basic themes could be very effective, I think.
https://youtu.be/rLCQJg1x0Hg

Cruz doesn't need to speak in his ads... his voice is a little grating.  That ad has a good backing audio... which he should stick to.

That said- I really think Beto has a much better shot than anyone is giving him... I know that most view winning Texas is fools gold etc... But Beto seems to be catching steam- and more importantly, I think he seems very good at campaigning (his X Factor)- and he will work harder that any other senate candidate in the country (which will make the most of these campaign skills).

[SCNCmod]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

[SCNCmod]

Just read the yahoo article (w/ video) of Beto playing air drums- going to Whataburger drive through after the debate (basically talking about "how damn likeable" Beto is:

Article link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/beto-o-apos-rourke-went-230132461.html

And I had a good laugh at one of the top responses:

"Well that's nothing, you guys should hear Cruz when he is playing the accordion in his polka suit."

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1043530060823703552

[SCNCmod]

Does Beto have a really aggressive voter registration outreach?  And if so, have effective does it appear to be?

[SCNCmod]

Someone should make another "Not-so-Tough Ted" ad ... highlighting him being too scared to debate Beto (using the same guy in the current "Not-so-Tough Ted" ad)

[SCNCmod]

Any chance they actually will make another "Tough as Texas" ad ... highlight Cruz being scared to debate? ... (it seems too perfect of a sequel, not to)

[SCNCmod]

Beto needs better TV ads... I get what he was trying to accomplish speaking directly to the camera... but he needs ads defining himself to the public (name ID, etc).  Even an ad that is semi like Bernie's America ads would probably work (not identical... but one with good background music, etc)

[SCNCmod]

Beto needs better TV ads... I get what he was trying to accomplish speaking directly to the camera... but he needs ads defining himself to the public (name ID, etc).  Even an ad that is semi like Bernie's America ads would probably work (not identical... but one with good background music, etc)

His ads have been terrible. Basically they've all been him in front of the camera preaching about his movement with little to no policy or clips of him at rallies or traveling across the state. Not a single ad on health care policy, education, immigration etc just general platitudes. And refusing to run negative ads is just another dumb move on his part.

Supporters need to start bombing his twitter to get the message through that he really need to step up his TV Ad strategy. and I'm not even saying he has to go negative.  But must do better than a 2nd grade Ad... and at least have ads that define himself (otherwise he will be defined by Ted's ads).

[SCNCmod]

I wonder how Henry Cuellar would have done.

Not really any better. He would not have raised nearly as much money or excited as many voters as Beto. He would have low name ID in most of TX still.

Realistically, TX Dems could not have done much better (if at all better) than Beto. While he has his issues, like refusing to use attacks and making bad ads, he has generally run a very strong campaign and is reasonably likely to lose by only single digits, which is far more than any Democratic Senate candidate running in a midterm in TX has achieved in forever.

The very fact that his name ID is almost as high as Cruz's is a major achievement that other non-Presidential Dem statewide candidates in Texas have struggled to achieve.

Agree with this... and there is still time for him to close out the final weeks with a strong Ad campaign- we will have to see if he makes adjustments to his Ad Strategy or not. (And I don't think it necessarily requires attack ads... but at least much better Bio Ads/ or Ads that makes a better case of why to vote for Beto).

[SCNCmod]

I heard the tail end of something on the Radio tonight (CNN or MSNBC?) ... about 1 county in TX registering 95% of eligible voters?? ...Not sure if I heard this correctly- can anyone clarify?

[SCNCmod]

I heard the tail end of something on the Radio tonight (CNN or MSNBC?) ... about 1 county in TX registering 95% of eligible voters?? ...Not sure if I heard this correctly- can anyone clarify?

It's Travis County (Austin) with 93%.

Isn't this unheard of? ... or are the number of eligible voters that are registered generally higher than most people would think?

[SCNCmod]

How do Beto & Cruz compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

[SCNCmod]

IS there any word on how Beto is spending that money? I mean if he's not spending it on a total gangbusters GOTV campaign then...

https://betofortexas.com/plan/

That actually sounds like a good GOTV strategy.  But where do you think Beto will spend all of the rest of the money... Is he also Planning to blanket the Airwaves (and Social Media) in the final couple of weeks? 

[SCNCmod]

Not that it means much, but I'm surprised Beto only has 675,000 twitter followers? 

[SCNCmod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BobMooreNews/status/1052019222732316673

That's actually probably money well spent for Beto as well... Most local congressional candidates likely know how to best turn out their voters- which also means more votes for Beto.

[SCNCmod]

I didn't see the 1st half of the debate tonight... But in the 2nd half I thought Beto had a strong performance.

[SCNCmod]

This moment is making the rounds on Twitter tonight.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1052374954514223105

That was the answer that stood out to me as well.  And with the Debt numbers & cost of the Tax cut emerging as an issue...

In general Dems would be smart to highlight a talking point similar to "we see now that Average American's are paying for the corporate tax give away that is exploding the deficit- and they will continue to as individual tax cuts sunset out and corporate tax cuts remain."

[SCNCmod]

Beto really needs to stop with the hand held selfie style low budget ads.  Spend a little money and make the ads look like someone other than a 2nd grader put them together.  How can someone run such a flawless campaign- yet have such a horrible tv ad campaign?

[SCNCmod]

Beto did a Great job in the CNN Town-Hall tonight.  I also think it could actually help winning some undecided voters (he did a good job of removing the "scare" that Republicans and  Cruz have tried to paint on Beto).

[SCNCmod]

Videos from CNN Town Hall.  Probably definitely alleviated (to undecided voters at least) the Beto is too radical for Texas that Cruz has tried to paint.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053077562971299840

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1053066488981213185

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053072248679084033

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053068557976657920

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053066614684274688

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053062715281944576