Biden 20.5
Super overrated. He hasn't even announced yet and is extremely likely to bomb if he does. I do not have him in my top 4 most likely candidates.
Harris 20.1
Should be higher. The most likely candidate currently in my view.
Sanders 20.1
Yeah, sure. I don't think Sanders wins but I have to admit that there are several plausible scenarios where he wins.
O’Rourke 16.8
Too low. I have him second to Harris at the moment. Could bomb for sure, but his upside is massive. Probably the only candidate who could potentially just run away with the primary quickly.
I think this is a pretty good take- with the exception of Harris. She certainty has a path, But I would put her in 3rd.
I would put the likelihood:
1. Beto
2. Bernie
3. Kamala
4. Booker
5. Biden
6. Pete
Bernie will likely get 20-25% of the vote, but I think 25% is his Max. Definitely not over 30%. So he probably stuck with 2nd, regardless of who wins.
I think the race will come down to Beto, Bernie, and 1 other (Kamala or maybe even Booker)
The Key for who is the 3rd candidate will be SC. After a year of campaigning, I think Beto will end up winning Iowa. Bernie will win NH. Then Beto wins NV with Bernie in 2nd.
Then it comes to SC.
Biden is strong in SC, But the state will likely be won by Kamala or Booker (unless they end up completely splitting the AA vote, which is 60% of the Dem Primary vote in SC). Right now Booker and Kamala are pretty even in SC. But I think Booker might end up connecting more with the AA community in SC (and some of the other southern states as well- where he has put in a lot of time the past couple of years). If Biden ended up winning SC, then it would be a 4 person race between Beto, Bernie, Biden, whoever prevailed between Kamala/Booker. If Kamala or Booker wins SC, then Biden is out, and its a 3 person race between Beto, Bernie & Kamala/Booker (whoever wins SC).
So I guess in a way, Booker is the only one I could consider a potential dark horse (since most people consider Biden, Bernie, Beto, Kamala to be the current front runners). Pete is certainly picking up steam at the moment (and I think could make a very good president), but in a year when beating Trump is such a high priority, I wonder if Dem voters will be willing to take a chance on an under-40, gay, mayor (even though he's Military Vet & Rhodes Scholar). I'm not saying its not possible, but highly unlikely at this point. (But I do think he will have a Cabinet high position & I also very easily see him being President in the future).
If Kamala wins SC- then the field would go down to Beto, Bernie, Kamala. At this point I think Beto picks up a large part of Biden's support & Kamala solidifies much of the AA (But there is still part of the older AA community that thinks a black candidate will not win the general election in 2020). At this point the winner would be Beto or Kamala, whichever can generate the most excitement & whichever (at that point in the race) Dems think is most electable.
Granted if Biden were to win Iowa, all of the above is thrown into the wind- but I do not see him winning Iowa. He has been on the ground in several previous campaigns for the Dem nominee... and never had a bit of success connecting.
