Clinton. But only because she represents the WHOLE state. Giuliani represented only NYC. And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.
I was under the impression that outside of NYC, the state was more conservative-leaning (hence, I suppose, why they have a Republican Governor) than the City? I also get the impression that NYC accounts for a pretty big chuck of the state's population. Therefore, if both of these impressions are semi-accurate, if there was a Republican who could win NYC, wouldn't they have a pretty good chance of winning the state?
As I said in another thread, if you take out NYC from NY it turns into a Democrat leaning swing state that a republican could actually win in unlike the city-dominated, always Democrat state it seems to be turned into.