NJ-11 2018: Can Rodney Frelinghuysen be defeated in 2018?

[houseonaboat]

I'll just say that Frelinghuysen really wishes he had earmarks again...

Redistricting in 2011 helped most Republicans but hurt Frelinghuysen a little bit, since he picked up a few Democratic strongholds in Essex County (Montclair, West Orange and Bloomfield) and lost some Morris County municipalities. Plus the parts of Morris County he does represent, while not trending Democratic in any meaningful way, are diverse and very wealthy, and Trump is a political albatross here whom most Republicans have run away from.

With that said the Frelinghuysen name is almost untouchable in New Jersey, he's very well-liked by his independent and Republican constituents, and, most importantly, he's the most powerful representative in New Jersey's congressional delegation, and as chair of House Appropriations. If the Democrats run an actual challenger against him (Kal Penn's name has come up a few times) then yeah, he's in trouble. But the thin Democratic bench in Morris County plus Frelinghuysen's own strong base and influence make him a tough out.

Likely R.

[houseonaboat]

Assuming Murphy wins the primary and the general (both of which are more than likely at this point), Codey is going to get a huge promotion in terms of status in the New Jersey Statehouse as the gatekeeper between Murphy's camp and state legislators, so it's unlikely that he'll give that up for a long shot bid in a R district. I've heard from well-connected people that some Democrats are trying to recruit Kal Penn though I don't know if that'll come to anything.