Trafalgar wasn't a valid pollster.
People need to stop saying that all the Republican hack pollsters were good just because they were closer to the actual result.
I could make a map where I just give Trump every single state by 5 points, and then point to FL and say "look I had Trump winning FL by 5 and he won it by 3! I beat all the fake news pollsters!" or "look I had Trump winning WI by 5, and he only lost it by 1, that's way better than the fake news pollsters who had Biden +9!"
The fact of the matter is that the mainstream pollsters were wrong, but they were mostly wrong directionally. Trump got way better turnout than expected so you basically shift every poll 4-5 points in Trump's favor and you're close to the real results. That's why Nate's snake map ended up being just about right, with GA the only outlier.
On the other hand, Trafalgar was just predicting a Trump win in every swing state based on nothing other than quantified "gut instinct" about "shy Trump voters." So you had totally wrong numbers like Trump +2 in MI, +2 in PA, +1 in NV, +5 in GA, +3 in AZ, and so on. Those are wrong numbers, and there's not any rhyme or reason to their wrong-ness. They're just random Trump-friendly numbers that Trafalgar got not through any scientific methodology, but rather by starting with the final result they wanted, doing a poll, and then fabricating priors to massage the results until they got to their desired outcome.
Just for clarity: Trafalgar had Trump winning Florida by +2.1% when he actually won by 3.4
