Which states swing D/R? (user search)
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  Which states swing D/R? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which states swing D/R?  (Read 389 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: May 06, 2024, 12:25:08 PM »

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

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DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,088
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2024, 06:45:53 AM »

I don’t think GA is swinging left otherwise it looks reasonable.

Georgia is one that I'm still not sure about. I think Atlanta population growth may cancel out a rightward swing amongst existing residents, although it seems that the growth has slowed compared to the 2010s; ditto for South Carolina. Rs could be maxed out in the Mid-South and the Plains (as well as IN/MO), which is why I have them swinging left although the upper Plains and upper Mountain West are also coin tosses. Northern New England and Arizona inch left because of abortion, while southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic swing right because of illegal immigration and RFK hurting Biden there. I suppose my map is a bit ambiguous since I used the Atlas color system, which only accounts for swings in units of 5%. It's probably too conservative of an estimate, but here it is with a bucket for <2%:

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