How would Kasich have performed in New England?

[DPKdebator]

Trump's 2016 performance in New England was the best since George Bush in 2000, winning a total of 19 counties (vs. 15 for Bush). Kasich was the second-best performing Republican in all of New England sans Maine... so how would he have done in the region during the general election (in terms of states/county level)?

[DPKdebator]

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland

I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.

[DPKdebator]

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland

I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.

I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).

This might be a little generous, but an improvement like that would probably look like this: