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Author Topic: Youth Vote  (Read 3863 times)
Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
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Posts: 201
United States


« on: December 07, 2016, 12:38:38 AM »

Those numbers actually still seem troubling for Republicans.  Democrats just need to hold onto that generation as it ages because the next generation isn't going to be much better for the GOP as it will inevitably be very diverse.
The country is just getting more Hispanic and less Non-Hispanic White.

Not true, all minority groups are growing faster than whites, some more than others.  In fact, the fastest growing group is Asians.  But the general ordering in terms of relative growth:

1) Asian
2) Hispanic
3) Black
4) Non-Hispanic White

Everything I've read suggests that the Black population is growing only slightly faster than the White population though.

What about the "mixed" race segment. The growing number of offspring of mixed couples. Asian/white and white/Hispanic couples are very common particularly in the west, southwest, and Florida.
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
Rookie
**
Posts: 201
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2016, 01:50:15 AM »

Those numbers actually still seem troubling for Republicans.  Democrats just need to hold onto that generation as it ages because the next generation isn't going to be much better for the GOP as it will inevitably be very diverse.
The country is just getting more Hispanic and less Non-Hispanic White.

Not true, all minority groups are growing faster than whites, some more than others.  In fact, the fastest growing group is Asians.  But the general ordering in terms of relative growth:

1) Asian
2) Hispanic
3) Black
4) Non-Hispanic White

Everything I've read suggests that the Black population is growing only slightly faster than the White population though.

What about the "mixed" race segment. The growing number of offspring of mixed couples. Asian/white and white/Hispanic couples are very common particularly in the west, southwest, and Florida.

True.  I haven't seen any numbers on how that group votes but I suspect that overall it's pretty strong Democrat.  Most of the mixed race Asian/White couples I know are highly educated, liberals in urban centers.  I don't know many Hispanic/White couples but I'd presume they lean left as well.

I would imagine this to be the case as well. Certainly Asian/white couples would lean liberal but I wonder if the same can be said of Hispanic/white couples. Either way I think the continued intermarriage between whites and asians/Hispanics will continue the expansion of the definition of "whiteness" There's historical precedent of this with the Italians and the Irish not being considered part of the traditional white WASP society.

I think if the intermarriage rates continue to increase then their offspring will start self indentifying as white. This is already happening with Hispanic Americans who 53% of them (according to the 2010 census) already self identify as white. I suspect asians will also follow in the same path. Perhaps I'm basing too much of this on my own observations as someone who's grown up in Southern California.

I guess my point is that the youth aren't a lockdown for Democrats in the long run. If white millennials are still voting Republican and the definition of whiteness begins to encompass more minority groups then we could see a gradual generational shift. Maybe not, but we'll see. I love being a cynic, particularly after seeing the results of this election.
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
Rookie
**
Posts: 201
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2016, 02:42:41 PM »

Those numbers actually still seem troubling for Republicans.  Democrats just need to hold onto that generation as it ages because the next generation isn't going to be much better for the GOP as it will inevitably be very diverse.
The country is just getting more Hispanic and less Non-Hispanic White.

Not true, all minority groups are growing faster than whites, some more than others.  In fact, the fastest growing group is Asians.  But the general ordering in terms of relative growth:

1) Asian
2) Hispanic
3) Black
4) Non-Hispanic White

Everything I've read suggests that the Black population is growing only slightly faster than the White population though.

What about the "mixed" race segment. The growing number of offspring of mixed couples. Asian/white and white/Hispanic couples are very common particularly in the west, southwest, and Florida.

True.  I haven't seen any numbers on how that group votes but I suspect that overall it's pretty strong Democrat.  Most of the mixed race Asian/White couples I know are highly educated, liberals in urban centers.  I don't know many Hispanic/White couples but I'd presume they lean left as well.

I would imagine this to be the case as well. Certainly Asian/white couples would lean liberal but I wonder if the same can be said of Hispanic/white couples.
I
"Other" voted 56-37% in favor of Hillary. "Other" made up 3% of the electorate in 2016.

These potential "others" will start self identifying as white in the future; particularly the descendants of white/Hispanic and white/Asian couples. "Other" will never be a large part of the electorate. 53% of Hispanic Americans already self identify as white according to the 2010 census. The continued assimilation of these new immigrant groups and the intermarriage rates with the white American population will expand the definition of whiteness in this country. Same thing happened with the Irish and Italians.
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
Rookie
**
Posts: 201
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2016, 07:55:07 PM »

Those numbers actually still seem troubling for Republicans.  Democrats just need to hold onto that generation as it ages because the next generation isn't going to be much better for the GOP as it will inevitably be very diverse.
The country is just getting more Hispanic and less Non-Hispanic White.

Not true, all minority groups are growing faster than whites, some more than others.  In fact, the fastest growing group is Asians.  But the general ordering in terms of relative growth:

1) Asian
2) Hispanic
3) Black
4) Non-Hispanic White

Everything I've read suggests that the Black population is growing only slightly faster than the White population though.

What about the "mixed" race segment. The growing number of offspring of mixed couples. Asian/white and white/Hispanic couples are very common particularly in the west, southwest, and Florida.

True.  I haven't seen any numbers on how that group votes but I suspect that overall it's pretty strong Democrat.  Most of the mixed race Asian/White couples I know are highly educated, liberals in urban centers.  I don't know many Hispanic/White couples but I'd presume they lean left as well.

I would imagine this to be the case as well. Certainly Asian/white couples would lean liberal but I wonder if the same can be said of Hispanic/white couples.
I
"Other" voted 56-37% in favor of Hillary. "Other" made up 3% of the electorate in 2016.

These potential "others" will start self identifying as white in the future; particularly the descendants of white/Hispanic and white/Asian couples. "Other" will never be a large part of the electorate. 53% of Hispanic Americans already self identify as white according to the 2010 census. The continued assimilation of these new immigrant groups and the intermarriage rates with the white American population will expand the definition of whiteness in this country. Same thing happened with the Irish and Italians.

That's different though.  50% of hispanics probably are white (i.e., descendants of Europeans).  I'm not sure other including "white/asian" or "white/black" mixes will as readily convert to white.  Hispanic isn't actually a race, it's an ethnicity comprised of different races, a strong proportion of which are white people that moved from Spain, Italy, Germany to Central and South America.

Most Hispanics are mestizos, mixed European and indigenous heritage. In Mexico, estimates show that only roughly 10 percent of the population identifies as solely European; the vast majority of their population identified as mestizo. This is why, at least in my experience growing up in California, acquaintances I've met whose parents were one Hispanic and one white usually looked white themselves. This has also been my experience with my cousins and other acquaintances who are half white and half Asian. Asian and Hispanic cultures will not only assimilate culturally with the definition of whiteness but will physically start to "look" white overtime.
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
Rookie
**
Posts: 201
United States


« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2016, 09:39:40 PM »

Perhaps the ground is fertile for a new party to emerge and soak up youth voters.

Not really.

Well, why not? Here's some data indicating that it could be possible for a new approach to be successful with young people. In addition, a nuclear bomb was dropped on US politics a month ago today. It's gonna have major consequences, maybe it changes the game a bit for 2020.

Most politically active young people will use the Democratic Party as their tool through which they will air their grievances with the political system. Watch out for the 2020 Democratic primary! It's gonna get wild folks.
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