BG-NY
YaBB God
Posts: 3,524
Political Matrix
E: -1.23, S: 0.42
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« on: December 15, 2023, 08:27:19 AM » |
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Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:
(1) Collapse margins disproportionately in safe D states
(2) Increase margins significantly in safe R states
(3) Win toss up states by larger than expected margins
(4) Start winning states that are usually out of reach (Indiana 08)
1 doesn’t seem to be happening relative to the “popular” vote. Jury is out on 2. 3 is interesting here, because it means states like PA, WI, GA could go from being within 1 point to 5-10 point wins. But 4 is what I need to wrap my head around.
It seems pretty clear Trump is pacing for an 08 Obama type victory, if we follow this course. But all of the states other than his 2016+NV map seem to require significant vote splitting. I don’t think there will be enough defection that NH/ME/NM/VA flip unless the bottom really comes out. Could see MN but don’t trust it.
What does your map look like?
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