Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BG-NY]

I have been reading some of the debate on Twitter about this being “Ukraine’s Defense” vs “The West’s Proxy War”, seems pretty heated on both sides:

• Many advocates for Ukraine showing anger that what they perceive to be very little in terms of weapon and aid have actually been donated
• Some (not all) proponents of Ukraine are offended at the thought that this war would be over and/or Ukraine would not exist without NATO aid and weapons
• There is an overwhelming propensity to attack the pride of Ukraine given Zelenskyy’ tours, calling him and Ukraine the beggars of Europe
• A belief that there is a lack of appreciation from Ukraine for the weapons and aid that have been provided by NATO

Have not been following this all that closely but I will say, it’s inappropriate to pressure Ukraine to enter a peace deal in which it will cede territory. If someone wants to cut off weapons and aid, that’s one thing, but the West doesn’t get to control how long a country can right for, that is very much imperialistic.

[BG-NY]

What’s the best source for objective information on the military front? Everything is either NATO propaganda or tankie disinfo on Twitter, really curious where this actually stands.

[BG-NY]

Well, what would be considered a “win” for either side at this point?

[BG-NY]

What will it take for Putin to give up? His quick war has lasted a year and from my understanding they’re losing more territory every day and have not one a major battle in months.

[BG-NY]

No fly zones? What on Earth?

Thank god Biden won and Hillary lost or we’d get insanity like that.

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

Is Putin being replaced realistic? If not, what is the path to a ceasefire?

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1637659241078046720?s=46

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1638228164294877185?s=46

[BG-NY]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639947484406468608
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639949057765326849
This war can’t end with Putin in power 😡🤬

Article is light in details, but if it is accurate that Ukrainian civilians are being kidnapped and sent to concentration camps, the West most likely would need to bomb Russia. Very big “if”.

[BG-NY]

Is there even popular support within Russia for this invasion/annexation anymore?

[BG-NY]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
( Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

[BG-NY]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
( Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

Far more than that. Just for example:

Russia is winning, but needs to win much harder and faster.
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is good. 
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is bad.

Stalemate, wants war to continue until both sides are broken.
Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win, and move hard right (which likely won't happen if war ends too soon).

Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win, but only in a way that produces regime change in Russia.
Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win, but also wants Russia to collapse and break up, which will only happen with far more stress on the Russian state.

I personally think it’s a stalemate, and want Russia to leave the war zone.

[BG-NY]

Can we admit Ukraine into the EU and NATO already?

While I oppose foreign aid, I would like a weakened Russia and China, and I think allowing Ukraine to be absorbed into both is the best, most cost-effective way of dealing with this.

[BG-NY]

From neutral posters (not in terms of rooting interests, but in terms of news consumption), who is currently winning the war? From my understanding as a casual observer, Ukraine has begun a counteroffensive that has been very successful.

[BG-NY]

From neutral posters (not in terms of rooting interests, but in terms of news consumption), who is currently winning the war? From my understanding as a casual observer, Ukraine has begun a counteroffensive that has been very successful.

Russia hasn't been "winning" since the retreated from Kyiv.

Right now, it's just trying to hold on to territory that it stole from Ukraine.

I wasn't sure if they had recently won or lost territory. If Russia is losing captured territory frequently, it's likely they will have to sue for peace.

I think I read somewhere that Ukraine has started attacking targets in Russia the last couple months too?

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1672648087859257346?s=46

[BG-NY]

The odds of neither Putin nor Zelensky being heads of state by end of year are shockingly high at the moment.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1672668518888923137

Massive concessions for Putin. He looks incredibly weak.

[BG-NY]

I'm just saying one thing in general: The world is very fortunate a moron like Trump isn't president in this kind of international situation. Instead, there's a steady hand with decades of experience on foreign policy in the Oval Office, surrounded by an able and professional team.

Remember when everyone peed their pants over a supposed air strike in Poland, or whatever that was? And Biden did the smart thing and waited until there was more information?

This is why he's the best President of my lifetime. He is calm.

Outside of Trump, Biden has been the best FoPo president of my lifetime (born during Reagan’s admin). That said, it’s not because of experience or a steady hand. It’s because he fundamentally is an anti-interventionist and opposes expending US lives abroad unnecessarily. He’s able to say “no” to the war party.

[BG-NY]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

[BG-NY]

Also, this is a colossal collapse to Russia by Europe. I’m noninterventionist, but if Mexico or Canada was being invaded I would take great interest. Germany, France, Poland need to ramp up their efforts significantly. Realistically they should send coalition forces over.

[BG-NY]

Thought this was pretty cool:

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has promised that in 2024 the country’s military will have a million drones. His nation already deploys hundreds of thousands of small drones, but this is a major change – a transition to a military with more drones than soldiers. What does that mean for the future of war?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2413260-what-does-ukraines-million-drone-army-mean-for-the-future-of-war/

[BG-NY]

Putin came off as very intelligent, charismatic, and deliberate in his interview. Tucker came off as a clown.

That said, I still am (half) rooting for Ukraine, since we've stopped funding them and since they're using asymmetric tactics now.

[BG-NY]

Ukraine should use biological/chemical weapons against Russia, imo.