The problem with the GOP is that Trumpism has no suburban appeal whatsoever. Trump's extreme positions on immigration, issues with women, skepticism on climate politics, brash personality, and ties to white nationalism are turning people off. The partisan split is now a cosmopolitan/parochial divide becoming all about identity politics and culture wars rather than policy.
Trump isn't extreme on immigration. The democrats are. Polling consistently shows that no other issue has such a huge divide between the political establishment (and the media's idea of moderate) and the voters. This trend also exists quite clearly in Europe and has led to unprecedented success for nationalist parties in recent years. Trump won voters who listed immigration as their top issue by an almost 2:1 ratio according to CNN's exit poll, making it his best issue.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-pollsOne survey gave 7 options ranging from most liberal (option 1) to most conservative (option 7) on various issues. On immigration, the most popular option was #7 with a full 1/4 of the electorate saying that they would enact a moratorium on all immigration and deport all illegals. Options 5,6, and 7 combine to form more than half the electorate, despite the democrat establishment and republican establishment (pre-Trump, anyway) being closest to options 2 and 4, respectively. That's right, as of 2015, most Americans were to the right of the average republican politician. That's the reason why Trump was able to eviscerate a plethora of experienced primary opponents. In the end, only fellow immigration hardliner Ted Cruz could even compete with him.
https://www.vox.com/2015/8/15/9159117/donald-trump-moderatehttps://www.scribd.com/document/345225481/Ideological-Innocence-AhlerWhile Trump's disregard for the environment annoys me, climate change is borderline irrelevant for all but hardcore activists with apocalyptic predictions that will never come true and the GOP was already the party of business over nature before Trump. I think democrats would do well to simply focus on pollution rather than climate change, as nearly everyone agrees pollution is bad. Republicans could also enact policies that incentivize improved cleanliness and efficient technology (like applying the successful cap and trade program to carbon emissions) without harming workers very much.
I absolutely agree that his personality plays a huge role in his high disapproval. A substantial amount of people did vote for him despite not liking him and even saying his temperament was un-presidential. Trumpism without Trump (likely put forward by someone like Senator Tom Cotton) could easily outperform Trump's 2016 victory.
The extent of his ties to white nationalism is that President Trump had the audacity to condemn political violence no matter who it's directed at (which apparently is unacceptable in the current year) and note the fact that they had a permit to be there, which antifa did not. That and he only disavowed David Duke like 23 times, but not forcefully enough I guess.
Identity politics is the inevitable result of a diverse society. It's implicitly recognized by both sides whenever they talk about the black community. They understand that a rich black suburbanite still cares about the struggles faced by fellow blacks in the inner cities. That's why republicans mindlessly repeat slogans about the "government plantation" rather than trying to appeal to the sizable black middle class on the same grounds as they would whites in the same socioeconomic situation (with tax cuts). Really, every race shows this kind of solidarity except for whites, although that is beginning to change.
