Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[American2020]

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https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/10/trump-approval-dips-in-every-state-though-deep-pockets-of-support-remain/

[American2020]

Why the polls are still wrong

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http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/355066-why-the-polls-are-still-wrong

[American2020]

Quinnipac

Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 56%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10112017_Uhj87ke.pdf/

[American2020]

Trump Is Far Less Popular Than The Economy Suggests He Should Be



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-far-less-popular-than-the-economy-suggests-he-should-be/

[American2020]

Indiana

Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 45%



https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/25/poll-donald-trump-under-water-indiana/797998001/

[American2020]

Donald Trump is in a very bad polling place
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/03/politics/trump-polling/index.html

How Low Can Trump Go?
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/11/donald_trump_is_even_more_unpopular_than_you_think.html

[American2020]

Ipsos

Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 61%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

[American2020]

The indictments actually HELPED him???

No I'd say it hurt him but only during the small time period where the news was completely dominated by it. It really does seem like Trump has hit his floor (35 - 38%), which may or may not be temporary. At this point the only thing that could allow it to stabilize at a number in the low 30s (or lower) might be time, in the sense that years go by and nothing gets done and his supporters continue to see no movement on issues Trump promised to solve, and/or passing very unpopular policies that even he can't defend.

I think the indictments definitely helped considering they had nothing to do with Trump or any actions done during the campaign.

Even if Trump support stabilizes in the high 30s, he is in deep trouble. His unpopularity is not due to some reversible bad luck such as military reverses that can themselves be reversed or an economic downturn that can come to an end with a solid recovery. He got elected with about the same level of support as Dukakis in 1988 or McCain in 2008, except  that those two lost. He has done nothing to win over support from people who did not vote for him. He inculcates fear and loathing. He is the butt of bad jokes like Gerald R. Ford -- except that the jokes about Ford were about clumsiness (now that we know about the football injuries, we understand the hooks and slices on the golf course and the stumbling incidents). Still, Ford had the reputation of a nice guy , as he never let the power get to his head. Ford came close to getting re-elected. John F. Kennedy, like Trump, also got elected by a narrow margin in the Electoral College -- but he started winning over people who voted for Nixon. It helped that he did not disparage his predecessor and his opponent. Donald Trump is as full of himself as any pathological narcissist, and that is not good for winning people over.

So when things are sort-of-OK, approval ratings for him are in the 30s. Obama was doing better when the economy was in a shaky recovery and the mess that he inherited from Dubya had no obvious exit. Maybe Obama is a far nicer person. Maybe it helps that he made gestures to the Other Side of the political debate.  Maybe it helps that he has a family life that fits in in the most conservative standards of 'family values'. Maybe it helps that the only scandal involving him is the contrived scandal about where he was born.

....The indictments might have some help among the circle-the-wagons crowd, but just remember: people do not commit perjury for the fun of it or for immediate gain. People perjure themselves to protect previous wrongdoing. This wrongdoing is not about having an affair or an illegitimate child (generally not a criminal  offense) or about some binge that occurred at a time in which the effects would no longer have consequences due to the statute of limitations.     

Paul Man-O'-Fraud is one nasty piece of work, someone who has aided dictatorial, corrupt regimes in oppressing their peoples.  He aided a dictator in looting his country.

If I had been in position to win the Presidency I would stay clear of someone like Manafort. I do not like being involved with crooks and liars. I recognize them for the harm that they can do both to my credibility (without which I could not even hold a job long) and people to whom I have responsibility as an elected official.

And just look at the "strongly disapprove" category. 50%.  That will make a mess of canvassing efforts in any re-election bid. At this point I look at the prospects for the re-election of President Trump, and all I can see is "must cheat to win". Now ask yourself what sort of America would it be if the President got re-elected with intimidation or rigged voting?

Teaching English in some Third World country would be far more attractive than ending up in a labor camp or a torture chamber. 

Furthermore he's losing support in the following places:

• Independents
• Non-college educated whites
• Non-whites

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/trump-approval/index.html

[American2020]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/11/15/arizona-poll-shows-potential-trouble-for-trump-gop.html

[American2020]

Colorado

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http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/coloradans-increasingly-displeased-with-president-trump-poll-finds

https://mediaassets.thedenverchannel.com/document/2017/11/29/Keating%20Colorado%20Poll%20November%202017%20XTABS%20Part%20One%20-%20For%20Release_72983933_ver1.0.pdf?_ga=2.251906825.1467516554.1512000768-1705114113.1512000768

[American2020]

POLITICO/Morning Consult

Approve: 43% (-1)
Disapprove: 52% (+2)
No opinion: 5%

[American2020]

I can imagine welfare being replaced with debt bondage. The people who really rule America are cruel, ruthless, amoral people with no moral compass, and they intend to reward themselves and their progeny for their vices forever.

dude you just described me!

I want to become a "vulture capitalist" because it's a good way to make money and I hate everyone else. If I get what I want, I don't care about anyone else getting their needs. The common man can die in poverty and rot in hell for the way they treated me when I was young.

Madame Guillotine or her equivalent could put an end to that state of affairs.

like the French Revolution?

I understand what you would want to put an end to that state of affairs. However there's a risk to be considered as a martyr by his supporters.
I prefer to send Donald in exile in a great palace with gardens somewhere in Russia. It could be a golden prison for him. Napoleon should be a great example to punish him and his staff.
I have a quote from Napoleon.

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[American2020]

Quinnipac, (NOV. 29-DEC. 4), 1,508 Registered Voters

Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 58%
DK/NA: 7%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us12052017_ufrt567.pdf/

I consider now any polls including Registered Voters. Quinnipac is one of my favorite pollsters.

Among Millennials

Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 74%
DK/NA: 7%

[American2020]

Ipsos

December 07, 2017

Disapprove: 59.1%
Approve: 36.7%
Mixed feelings: 4.2%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/

[American2020]

Trump's approval rating at an all time low in RCP (37.3 percent average)

Trump and the GOP are done!

I'd also add this quote from David Brooks.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/07/opinion/the-gop-is-rotting.html?_r=1

[American2020]

Marist (December 4th - December 7th, 2017)


National Registered Voters
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure: 6%

Region
Northeast: 28% 64% 8%
Midwest: 42% 48% 10%
South: 45% 49% 7%
West: 29% 67% 4%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3

[American2020]

3 reasons Trump's approval ratings are so bad

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/3-reasons-trumps-approval-ratings-are-so-bad/article/2643245

[American2020]

Mmmm...look at that under 35 number:



Permanent majority imminent

John Kasich is confirming it.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/17/politics/kasich-gop-losing-future/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

[American2020]

He's losing his base of supporters.

The Atlantic

Newsweek

[American2020]

Two states that Republicans dare not lose:

Missouri, PPP. Trump approval 48%, disapproval 47% -- slight edge for now for President Trump.

The "Show Me" state has some other issues with the GOP:

Mitch McConnell 23-54, 23 not sure
DREAM Act 61-27
Obamacare repeal, 45-37... keep but improve, 54 and repeal-and-replace 37

...Senator McCaskill has a slight but indecisive edge against her most likely Republican opponent. Add the usual 6% gain from an early match-up for an incumbent, and she wins.  

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MissouriPollJanuary2018.pdf

My map may overstate the chance of Trump winning Missouri in 2020. It is intended to be charitable to any incumbent who has even the slightest edge in approval polling. My seat-of-the-pants prediction for Missouri in 2020 now has Missouri as an extreme tossup. If Missouri indicates anything, it is that the 2020 election will look much like the 2008 election in result.

Now for a real shocker -- Georgia! The state has typically been about even in approval and disapproval for Trump. That is over. This is an outlier... but when we see lots of other outliers, maybe we have to treat the outliers as norms. Trump is awful, and I pay less attention to the 36% approval than to the 59% disapproval.

This may reflect President Trump's recent use of the word $#!+hole to describe some countries whose peoples are melanin-rich. There are of course many melanin-rich people in Georgia, and racist talk that one might expect from a KKK leader or a neo-Nazi might be unsettling to many white people, too.  

Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:

Georgia:

36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove

It's hard to believe, but in view of Alabama and Tennessee showing Trump about even, and Georgia differing from those two states by having one giant metro area instead of several smaller ones (Greater Memphis spills into Arkansas and Mississippi), I can almost think this reasonable. I must accept it.  The deviation from the assumption of a 50-50 election nationwide is about the same as for Alabama and Tennessee. Atlanta vs. Memphis/Nashville/Knoxville or vs. Birmingham/Mobile/Montgomery/Huntsville? That is the demographic difference between Georgia and either Alabama or Tennessee. Arguably Missouri, too, as St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas spill into Illinois and Kansas,  neither of which are swing states, respectively.

..........


Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
 
  

Twenty states with recent polls... now two-fifths (40%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.  

*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.

It's becoming more and more a 1980 US Election redux. It could be the worst defeat for an imcubent president since Reagan-Carter.

[American2020]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nation-tracker-americans-weigh-in-on-trump-immigration-remarks-first-year-in-office/

[American2020]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

[American2020]

Millennials

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http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-millennials-793548?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=yahoo_news&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news

[American2020]

Florida

Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 44%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/florida/fl-reg-trump-approval-florida-fau-poll-20180202-story.html

[American2020]

What an impressive presidency.

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https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unpopular-trump-infrastructure-plan-by-j--bradford-delong-2018-02