After Brnovich v. DNC: Will SCOTUS eventually declare Section 2 unconstitutional?

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If Alito writes it, I think you know what that might mean. &$*@#%@$&*%#!

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Please retire, Stephen Breyer, RBG's mistake was dire.

You know what will happen if he dies during a GOP Senate and a GOP president replaces him to make it 7-2.

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It probably isn’t Gorsuch, Barrett, or Kagan.

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I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

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I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

I was correct! Kagan has Lange v. California. Only Thomas, Kavanaugh, Breyer, and Alito don't have any from that sitting. Thomas already has many opinions, so I don't think he has Brnovich v. DNC. If Alito has it, RIP Terri Sewell, she's DOA and say hello to safe R AL-07.

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I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

I was correct! Kagan has Lange v. California. Only Thomas, Kavanaugh, Breyer, and Alito don't have any from that sitting. Thomas already has many opinions, so I don't think he has Brnovich v. DNC. If Alito has it, RIP Terri Sewell, she's DOA and say hello to safe R AL-07.

Um, can you explain what you think this case is about?

It’s about the scope of VRA’s results test.

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I think Kagan has the opinion in Lange v. California. If she doesn’t, it’s probably Kavanaugh.

I was correct! Kagan has Lange v. California. Only Thomas, Kavanaugh, Breyer, and Alito don't have any from that sitting. Thomas already has many opinions, so I don't think he has Brnovich v. DNC. If Alito has it, RIP Terri Sewell, she's DOA and say hello to safe R AL-07.

Um, can you explain what you think this case is about?

It’s about the scope of VRA’s results test.

So what is it that you think happens if Alito has the opinion, specifically?

The results test is completely struck down.

[Greedo punched first]

1-This is just a random Reason writer's speculation.
2-This case isn't very broad, it just involves Arizona's not accepting of provisional ballots cast at the wrong precinct and law banning ballot harvesting. Upholding those two laws wouldn't have much impact on Arizona elections as they're already in place and most states have such laws already. It makes sense the DNC would try to get these laws struck down but the almost certainly in vain attempt won't make voting laws any worse now than in 2020.

Why use such simple algorithms BTRD, when far more complex ones are just waiting out there to be savored?

"Overall, we might do some back-of-the-envelope odds-making as follows: A 5% chance Alito isn’t the author; a 20% chance there is a badly fractured opinion, of which Alito is the technical author; a 25% chance of Alito writing a 6-3 conservative opinion; and a 40% chance he’s writing a 5-4 “Katie-bar-the-door” decision."


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/06/28/supreme_court_bingo_2021_edition_145995.html

That is the most likely scenario. RIP Jim Clyburn, Terri Sewell, Cori Bush, Bennie Thompson, Troy Carter, Steve Cohen, and Nikema Williams.

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I mean its nearly crrtain the DNC will lose this case, the only question is if its narrow or a large loss.
The idea that banning ballot harvesting should be illegal is absurd.

Because the majority is conservative, many Democrats hope that it will be a narrow decision upholding the bans on ballot harvesting and out of precinct voting, without declaring Section 2’s results test unconstitutional.

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https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1409674534144200706

I expect Democrats to lose in the worst possible way in a 6-3 or 5-1-3 decision.

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The main dissent will be written by Sotomayor.

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1-This is just a random Reason writer's speculation.
2-This case isn't very broad, it just involves Arizona's not accepting of provisional ballots cast at the wrong precinct and law banning ballot harvesting. Upholding those two laws wouldn't have much impact on Arizona elections as they're already in place and most states have such laws already. It makes sense the DNC would try to get these laws struck down but the almost certainly in vain attempt won't make voting laws any worse now than in 2020.

Why use such simple algorithms BTRD, when far more complex ones are just waiting out there to be savored?

"Overall, we might do some back-of-the-envelope odds-making as follows: A 5% chance Alito isn’t the author; a 20% chance there is a badly fractured opinion, of which Alito is the technical author; a 25% chance of Alito writing a 6-3 conservative opinion; and a 40% chance he’s writing a 5-4 “Katie-bar-the-door” decision."


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/06/28/supreme_court_bingo_2021_edition_145995.html

That is the most likely scenario. RIP Jim Clyburn, Terri Sewell, Cori Bush, Bennie Thompson, Troy Carter, Steve Cohen, and Nikema Williams.

It’s not a redistricting case.

I know that. Killing the results test would also have an impact on redistricting despite not being a redistricting case. Sotomayor will write the longest dissent of her career ever.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1409885797084499972

[Greedo punched first]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Remember that Brnovich will do far more damage than Kemp did.

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Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

You know that isn’t what I’m referring to. What I mean is that Brnovich wants SCOTUS to go farther and kill the VRA.

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Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

You know that isn’t what I’m referring to. What I mean is that Brnovich wants SCOTUS to go farther and kill the VRA.

They will. This is a coup.

Do you think it will be a 5-1-3 decision with Alito's majority opinion being assigned by Thomas, with Roberts only partially agreeing with the judgment?

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You guys really think SCOTUS is going to kill off the Gingles trigger mechanism, and the ensuing requirement when triggered, of the requirement to have performing minority CD's when triggered?  Thar seems pretty wild to me, given the case is not about that, and the opinion wandering that far afield would be mere dictum. But I admit not to have studied the case on a granular level, much less read the briefs, or listened to oral argument.

Yes. That's what this means.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1409885797084499972

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Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

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Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

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Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

St. Louis is too risky to crack, because the districts required to do so would end up being swingy. They'll gut the KC district, but 7-1 is much more likely. As with TN, Cohen will likely stay while Cooper is cut. FL and TX are already Gerrymandered to the extreme, so only 2 or 3 will cut in those states. The thing is, there isn't that much will in these states to do that.

No. My 8R-0D map isn't risky at all. Not one House district voted for Jason Kander in 2016 on my map.

8R-0D map 2016 presidential election results.


8R-0D map 2016 US Senate election results. Every district voted for Roy Blunt.

[Greedo punched first]

If Alito writes it, who assigned it to him?

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As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

Yes. It is possible. If Arizona’s bans on out of precinct voting and ballot harvesting are upheld in a narrower decision, redistricting won’t be affected. If a broad decision is made to kill the VRA, it will affect redistricting.

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Kavanaugh will write the opinion most likely, which fulfils Robert's desire which will be relatively narrow. Alito will definitely write a much more extreme concurrence joined by Thomas and maybe others like Gorsuch and Barett.

No. Kavanaugh rarely gets blockbusters because of seniority. It will be Alito in a 6-3 or 5-1-3 decision.

[Greedo punched first]

The VRA still lives, but I was right about a partisan decision.

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I don't understand much legalese, so I take this to mean ERM's dooming about 7-0 R Alabama won't come to fruition?

At least not yet. SCOTUS can still take up another case to kill Section 2.

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I don't understand much legalese, so I take this to mean ERM's dooming about 7-0 R Alabama won't come to fruition?

Correct, yes. Section 2 still survived & the Court did literally nothing that'd harm its applicability to this redistricting cycle.

That is true for now, but a VRA redistricting case could be taken up next term.