Tilt Harris. I would expect her to do particularly well in the Southwest.
I also think Trump's pardon of Arpaio could really hurt him in Maricopa County should Harris choose to use it in her campaign in AZ. Let's not forget that Arpaio was ousted by a pretty significant margin there in 2016 (and he's not definitely not any more popular now, probably less so if anything), and if Trump loses Maricopa County it's probably over for him statewide.
A few Trump voters even voted for Paul Penzone. I don't think that small group of voters will forgive Trump for pardoning Arpaio. I think Harris wins Maricopa County and narrowly wins Arizona.
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