Which GOP Senators are likely to become Blue Dog Democrats?

[Greedo punched first]

Which of these US Senators are the most likely to become conservative Democrats who want the ACA repealed?

[Greedo punched first]

None of them. Joe Manchin might become a republican though.

Manchin will likely remain a conservative Democrat. Manchin opposes Paul Ryan's Medicare and Social Security privatization plans. Manchin also opposes school vouchers. Hoeven was a conservative Democrat in the 1990s. McCain and Heller are no fans of Trump.

[Greedo punched first]

I picked McCain, Collins, and Hoeven (who was a Democrat from 1996 to 1998).

[Greedo punched first]

I am interested on seeing if any GOP senators will switch parties because of disagreements with Trump based on platform. I wonder how the GOP civil war will turn out and what the eventual seventh party system will look like.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

If a few anti-Trump Republicans switch, that would give Democrats a majority in 2017.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

If a few anti-Trump Republicans switch, that would give Democrats a majority in 2017.

I think you are missing my point though. With the GOP at the peak of national+state power since the 1920s, there is no reason for anyone to switch. None of those states are dramatically trending away from Republicans. Collins has no good reason to leave, at least right now. Heller is the only remotely possible candidate for this imo, and just because they are vulnerable in a midterm that probably won't favor them doesn't mean they'll just go switching parties. They could easily get tossed in the primary in that case. It's a silly idea right now.

McCain, Portman, Collins, and Heller don't like Trumpism. What if they feel Trumpism is taking over the party? Why wouldn't they switch to distance themselves from Trump? If they switch, they would become DINOs. They would still effectively be Republicans in practice.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

If a few anti-Trump Republicans switch, that would give Democrats a majority in 2017.

I think you are missing my point though. With the GOP at the peak of national+state power since the 1920s, there is no reason for anyone to switch. None of those states are dramatically trending away from Republicans. Collins has no good reason to leave, at least right now. Heller is the only remotely possible candidate for this imo, and just because they are vulnerable in a midterm that probably won't favor them doesn't mean they'll just go switching parties. They could easily get tossed in the primary in that case. It's a silly idea right now.

McCain, Portman, Collins, and Heller don't like Trumpism. What if they feel Trumpism is taking over the party? Why wouldn't they switch to distance themselves from Trump? If they switch, they would become DINOs. They would still effectively be Republicans in practice.

Lol dude, you're missing the point. All of them are popular with the primary electorate of their states (except for McCain, but he won still, and this is probably his last term anyway) They'd all be DOA if they switched in our current political climate. Its not happening barring a worst case Trump presidency.

McCain can afford to switch. He will not run in 2022.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

If a few anti-Trump Republicans switch, that would give Democrats a majority in 2017.

I think you are missing my point though. With the GOP at the peak of national+state power since the 1920s, there is no reason for anyone to switch. None of those states are dramatically trending away from Republicans. Collins has no good reason to leave, at least right now. Heller is the only remotely possible candidate for this imo, and just because they are vulnerable in a midterm that probably won't favor them doesn't mean they'll just go switching parties. They could easily get tossed in the primary in that case. It's a silly idea right now.

McCain, Portman, Collins, and Heller don't like Trumpism. What if they feel Trumpism is taking over the party? Why wouldn't they switch to distance themselves from Trump? If they switch, they would become DINOs. They would still effectively be Republicans in practice.

Lol dude, you're missing the point. All of them are popular with the primary electorate of their states (except for McCain, but he won still, and this is probably his last term anyway) They'd all be DOA if they switched in our current political climate. Its not happening barring a worst case Trump presidency.

This is McCain's last term before retiring. He can afford to become a DINO. Do you think he will?

[Greedo punched first]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

[Greedo punched first]

None realistically, but if I had to choose one, McCain. Probably doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, has been personally attacked by the President-elect, and was a past target for a switch.

I think McCain will become a Blue Dog Democrat in his final term.

Why do you really think that. He is Republican. Period. And he's WAY closer to McConnell than he is to Schumer, and he is a former nominee.

Even though he is closer to McConnell, McConnell supports Trump. McCain did consider switching in 2001 despite being closer to McConnell.

[Greedo punched first]

Easily Murkowski - she's fairly moderate, and unlike Collins, the GOP seems to have active hostility towards her. Collins survives because even hardline GOPers see her as loyal, whereas Murkowski votes way more moderate than her state tends to accept from a Republican Senator.

Rick Santorum is quoted as liking Susan Collins more than John McCain because she's a more loyal Republican when it matters, whereas McCain, who probably votes more conservatively, is willing to balk on serious issues.

Is the GOP base in Arizona hostile to McCain?

[Greedo punched first]

I saw Susan Collins speak today. She seems to be distancing herself from Trump, but LOVES the attention as the queen of Moderates. Pretty unlikely she'll switch.

I no longer think she will switch. Collins is popular with Maine Republicans.

[Greedo punched first]

   If anyone left their party I'd like to see someone just become independent, or set up some little stand alone caucus like in the New York State Senate.  I'm tired of the either or binary choice of our politics. If anyone is politically courageous enough to leave their party, why not complete the progression and do what a true maverick would do and not be part of either party.

It is a good idea to be a crossbencher.

[Greedo punched first]

If Arizona wanted a moderate dem senator, they would have elected Kirkpatrick. McCain is not a Democrat in any sense of the word and everyone knows that.

A fair amount of moderate Democrats voted for McCain.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't really understand why any of the current Republican Senators would switch. The majority of switches in the past generation seem to born more from political expediency and less from some untenable divergence of ideology/policy positions. Considering Democrats are probably not going to have any kind of Senate majority until at least 2020 or 2022, it just doesn't make sense to me.

This is almost right. Most politicians who switch parties did so out of the combination of political expediency and ideological differences. It is not either/or.
I can see Trump causing a lot of division in the GOP in the next four years, but I can't see that resulting in anybody choosing to switch from Republican to Democrat.
Susan Collins is enormously popular with the voters of her state and I don't think her party label would matter one way or the other in terms of her re-election, so there would not be any expedient need to switch.

Collins is popular with the ME GOP base. McCain isn't popular with the GOP base in Arizona. McCain will retire in 2022. McCain won Kirkpatrick's district in 2016. Senators do sometimes switch when it doesn't flip Senate control. When Arlen Specter became a Democrat, it didn't flip the Senate.