COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[FrancoAgo]

that is here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf

i did a fast eye to the abstract, this remember some economics model, the problem is the assumption...

[FrancoAgo]

Here is one of the first videos of an Australian man, Tim McLean, reporting via video from the streets of Wuhan as he goes outside shopping for food after a long isolation period having been quarantined for over 60 days.

Is not Wuhan, Wuhan is close

[FrancoAgo]

Beshear should take a note from Campania regional president and noted badass Vincenzo De Luca, and threaten to send in the national guard armed with flamethrowers.

In Italy there is not a national guard
De Luca told "Carabinieri" a gendarmerie type police but this is not under the Governors, actually De Luca has not a police force

[FrancoAgo]

Here is one of the first videos of an Australian man, Tim McLean, reporting via video from the streets of Wuhan as he goes outside shopping for food after a long isolation period having been quarantined for over 60 days.

Is not Wuhan, Wuhan is close

No, that is Wuhan. Literally ground zero.

https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/6666548/coronavirus-lockdown-south-coast-man-says-hes-safer-in-wuhan-than-australia/

Tim McLean live in Ezhou, Wuhan will open the 8th April

[FrancoAgo]

Italy didn't increase their reported infections enough to pass China today... Which means that the US is probably going to pass both Italy and China tomorrow, and Italy will never have the most reported infections globally (except arguably tomorrow between when Italy reports a new total and when the US reports a new total).

US passed Italy, probably will pass China before the end of 26th march in all the states

[FrancoAgo]

I would actually support a national lockdown as long as it was for a short and definite period of time.  Most of the people advocating for this are citing a length of time that is far too long though.

If a community has zero known infections right now, you could still argue for a short-term lockdown because there may be people in the community who don’t yet know they are infect.  

But if after two weeks of lockdown, you still have no infections, you can be reasonably confident that indeed no one in the community has the virus.  At least confident enough that the marginal value of additional weeks on lockdown balances against it.

2 weeks are too few, someones can be sick but asymptomatic, so you need 4 weeks

[FrancoAgo]

Well at this point yesterday we’d recorded a higher number of cases per capita than any other country in the world. Italy took back that dubious crown today, but still, the virus is a very present threat here for people to nearly unanimously (96% support according to polling) support the measures that have been put in place. Not on the same level as France or Italy, but stringent nonetheless.

FWIW, on the 15th of March the US and Switzerland both recorded 850 new cases. Today the US is at 15,000 and climbing while Switzerland recorded... 860. A decline in new cases for the 5th time in 6 days. Worth thinking about, surely?

actually the higher number of cases per capita crown is in San Marino

[FrancoAgo]

for the fans of testing and not lock down
in US you are around 330 millions, to 2 tests a week, are 660 millions of tests a week at 30 $ each are around 20 billion at week,
ever if there is a capability to do 100 million of tests a day...

[FrancoAgo]

In Italy one of the first things they told was if you suspect to have corona virus don't go to ER or to doctor call them

[FrancoAgo]

The US response has really turned the corner.  We’re testing more than anyone else in the world by far.  We have a lot of ventilators and are ramping up production.  Things are really looking up.

what? relatively the US are not testing more than anyone else by far

[FrancoAgo]

Australia now has the highest testing rate on the planet (higher than South Korea) with an average positive return rate of 1.7%.

for wikipedia Australia is 8th in testing rate, after
Iceland
Bahrain
Norway
UAE
Switzerland
Slovenia
Malta

[FrancoAgo]

Unfortunately, it is not quite so simple. The # of tests also changes over time, and variation in # of cases depends partly on the # of tests that are conducted on a particular day. Other things equal, if you conduct more tests, you will find more cases. If you conduct fewer tests, you will find fewer cases.

Mar 29: 24,504 tests and 5,217 new cases (21.3% positive)
Mar 28: 35,447 tests and 5,974 new cases (16.9% positive)

the 29th march tests missing that of Emilia Romagna

p.s. the new cases from ER are included

[FrancoAgo]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

already yesterday i replied that the tests date for the 29th missed the Emilia Romagna, the today date are more strange the Emilia Romagna number is -2,001

[FrancoAgo]

the Clinton loss with a 48-46 in popular vote,  Biden a no hope, if this poll is right

[FrancoAgo]

Might I ask, regarding the fatality rate, why we're using deaths per cases (which is rising at a rapid rate at the moment) rather than deaths per cases closed, which puts it at what seems like a more realistic 30-40%?

because both are wrong, so one or the other is not important

and also NickG observation is right

for the Lancet 0,66% of fatality rate is probably too lower, there are various infos that mortality rate in the heavy hit area in Italy is now around 0,5%, not talking of the official tested but of statistical deaths difference with previous years, sorry for my english