Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[FrancoAgo]

My ranking is
Sinistra Rivoluzionaria 80%
LeU 78%
Potere al Popolo 77%
Partito Comunista 71%

[FrancoAgo]

Here http://www.interno.gov.it/it/speciali/elezioni-2018
there will be the link of live results

[FrancoAgo]

ì

If you look at the 2013  uselectionatlas results thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169906.0

Results/exit polls came out at around 2/25/2013 9am NY time which is 3PM Rome time.  Was it because voting in 2013 was over 2 days and voting the second day ends 3PM ?

Yes

[FrancoAgo]

Ok have found this!

http://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24?channel=RaiNews

and, I'm sure someone's already explained, so apologies, but are voters allowed to vote for a FPTP candidate of Party A and then Party B in the PR section, or not?

Thanks!

in short Not

[FrancoAgo]

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

poll workers, are not government workers, they are chosen from the municipal electoral commission,
they work a few hours on saturday principally for sign and stamp the ballot papers,
they need to open the seat sunday on 7 am so probably they are on the seat almost 15 minutes before. they probably ended on monday night
in Lazio and Lombardia there are also regional elections so they back to seat to 2 pm for the counting of regional ballot papers. If they are public workers they have 3 day off, if they are private teorically have the same (or 3 day payed) but most ask only the monday

[FrancoAgo]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

Just hopping in, like I always do before an election. Always follow the thread and issues off-and-on, until 2 weeks out, get up to speed, then try and participate in the thread.

Anyway, it actually is actually within the realm of possibility for the right-wing alliance under Berlusconi to win a majority outright. Polls before the embargo didn't put him that far off, and pollsters constantly said that there were a bunch of FPTP seats in the south between the right alliance and MS5 that were extremely close and would decide tge result. If Berlusconi gets close, but not exactly a majority, he will probably get it by flipping MPs as you do in Italian politics.

this is true but i have the feeling that the right wing alliance is a bit over estimated in the last polls, so probably they also with the "flipping" are under. minority government is very unusual if i remember right we get only one, Andreotti III, in the 1976/8 they get the vote from DC and the abstention of near all the other

[FrancoAgo]

Does anyone have info on how the center-right and center-left alliances are distributing the 232 deputies and 116 senate FPTP seats?  I assume M5S will have a candidate in every FPTP seat and both center-right and center-left alliances have perfect alliances (no seat where more than one candidate from the alliance is contesting)?

The way I figure it, as LN is allocated enough seats to run and both LN and M5S does well enough in the FPTP seats I can see a M5S-LN-FdI majority if PD under-performs.

by electoral law for each alliance you can have only one candidate for the FPTP seats

[FrancoAgo]

This might be a retarded question, but I heard some talk about a FI-PD grand coalition, regardless of the alliances. However, this is very implausible, as the numbers just don't seem to add up even when factoring in FPTP, right?

imho FI-PD post election alliance is out, they have not the numbers
also FI + all PD alliance has not the numbers

[FrancoAgo]

Here the link for the live results http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

[FrancoAgo]

In the 2013 the PD coalition get 29,55%
they lost a ally, SEL, with 3,2%
so 26,35%
they gained some new allies: Radicals 0,19% in 2013 and some ex  UDC and ex FI MPs but MPs elected with blocked list actually with very few electoral power in their hands

[FrancoAgo]

I noticed in TRENTINO-ALTO ADIGE in some seats (both Lower House and Senate) SVP-PATT ran separately from the Center-Left alliance.  So it seems that the election law does allow for alliances on a district by district basis.  Is this because Trentino-South Tyrol is an autonomous region so they get an exemption from the election law or does the new election law allows for imperfect alliances ?

the electoral law for TAA  has special rules

[FrancoAgo]

lazio 2 M5S 1 +Europa, 6 cdx, 1 toss up

[FrancoAgo]

So it seems that it is possible to vote for a FPTP candidate without voting for a party.  How does it work.  Does the voter mark off the name of the candidate and not the party?

yes, but this are reappointed to parties proportionally in the coalition or directly if is a single list candidate

[FrancoAgo]

Does anyone have seat numbers?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

for the senate you need look region by region
for that miss if you look in the seats you can see that they can be called also if the count is not completed

[FrancoAgo]

The right is 51 seats short in the House and 21 short in the Senate - not nearly enough for them to hope to glean a few MPs here and there. And I don't see any other party possibly backing Salvini as PM, so that as much is a nightmare scenario we can probably exclude.

there are also 6 life senators so senate majority is 161, i would be surprise if more that one of this is for Salvini premier, so they are 23 short

[FrancoAgo]

Also, what are the "candidati uninominali"?

FPTP candidate

[FrancoAgo]

If it is the choice of the President, a Sicilian, who gets first bid I would think it's fair to assume M5S is in better shape than The League, no?

the President will give at the people with a majority, if nobody will have a majority probably to the people backed to more MPs so atm positions to Salvini

[FrancoAgo]

I wonder, how likely is a minority government? Are they common (or at least thinkable) in Italy?

if i remember right we get only one, Andreotti III, in the 1976/8 they get the vote from DC and the abstention of near all the other

[FrancoAgo]

Minority governments with explicit outside support are possible (hell, the Monti government was technically a 0% government, in that none of its ministers hailed from a parliamentary party). Minority governments with no explicit majority are constitutionally impossible, since you need a confidence vote to start them.

Imho Monti government was not a minority government
He passed at Chamber with 556 yes and 61 no, and to the senate with 281 yes and 25 no
probably no partisan government is a better classification

[FrancoAgo]

Today elections in Molise for regional assembly and "governor"
poll will close to 23:00 CEST

[FrancoAgo]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

For the M5S it's not possible a alliance with Forza Italia/Berlusconi, Salvini do not want broke the alliance with FI