Kind of surprising, considering his age. He's only a few months older than I am. To retire from Congress at 58 kinda makes you wonder.
Democrats are heading for the exits in droves.
Clearly true, but I am still hoping for the possibility that it will not be a GOP wave year, sweeping in enough Republicans to take control. I like to think and hope that Dems, despite leaving "in droves," might be able to have a net gain of 2-3 seats in the House. Maybe Biden's approvals go up between now and October. Maybe the GOP will still look like it's pretty evil and unscrupulous, and that may motivate the Dem base to GOTV, better than they did in 2010 or 2014.
Ideally, more members of Congress would retire at such an age, and not everyone wants to be a lifer. This can be seen with Rep. Trey Hollingsworth of Indiana, who's retiring after having served only three terms. But as regards to what you say, I don't think Democrats will retain their House majority. I'm not expecting for them to suffer the kinds of losses they did in 1994 or 2010, but the current political environment does not bode well for them.
One) Yes, I didn't stop to think about quite a few other politicians who have retired as young as 58. Former Oklahoma Senator Don Nickles retired from the Senate when he was just 56. The two Senators from my home state, Missouri, as I was growing up - Tom Eagleton and John Danforth - retired from the Senate at ages 57 and 58 respectively. Eagleton's decision to retire in 1985-86 was because of the high cost of campaigning for reelection. Danforth's decision to retire in 1993-1994 was because he thought it was more prudent to pursue a new career at age 58 than at age 64. And I remember other members of the House who decided to retire after just 2 or 3 terms there, and/or who were younger than 58. There was an interesting story from 30 years ago about an Ohio politician by the name of Dennis Eckart. At 24 years old, he campaigned for and won a seat in the Ohio state house (1974). After three terms, he ran for and won a seat in the US house at age 30 (1980). In the House, he landed a seat on the prestigious, powerful Energy and Commerce Committee, so if he stuck it out for a lengthy congressional career, he could have ended up as chairman of one of the most powerful committees in Congress. But surprisingly, as of 1991-1992, he announced he was going to retire from politics. It was an announcement that stunned virtually all of Washington D.C., but it was touching that he said he wanted to retire just so he could be a better family man - a better husband and father - rather than remaining a political animal. So he retired from the House at merely 42 years old. George Will wrote a column (or was it a book?) which stated that when Rep. Eckart made that announcement, hundreds of congressional spouses called Mrs. Eckart to ask, "What did you put in his coffee, and where can I get some?"
Two) This is something I've mentioned once or twice before on the Congressional Elections Board, but I simply do not take for granted that the CURRENT political environment will be the same in October of this year. Biden's approval numbers could go up later this year. If the Dems are smart, they would campaign this September-October on a message that
the GOP is turning into the ugliest, most extreme version of itself in all American history, and if you let them take over, the MTGs and the Boehberts are going to multiply, they'll rise to become chairs of important committees, and Donald Trump could become Speaker! Like I said above, that may motivate the Get Out the Vote effort for their party far more effectively than in 2010 or 2014, even if the effort isn't as highly effective as their effort to win 2018 was. But I admit that there's a drop or two of wishful thinking on my part as I say that.
