IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[MarkD]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

[MarkD]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/08/rep-todd-rokita-embraces-trump-he-launches-indiana-senate-bid/550882001/

Rokita is in! Great news for Donnelly. The more messy the GOP primary is, the better.

This is similar to what I was suggesting before, except that I was saying that maybe neither Rokita or Messer will win the primary because of how much they attack each other, making each other look so bad that Indiana Republicans will look to someone else who runs a more respectable campaign.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

[MarkD]

Who wins the primary, Rokita or Messer?

Maybe neither.
As I've pointed out before on this thread, Rokita and Messer engaging in a fierce fight with each other could end up making them both look so bad that one of the other candidates in this race - someone we might look at now as likely to come in third place - might be able to beat both of them. Someone like state Rep. Mike Braun might end up winning the primary because a war between the two congressmen ruins both of their images.

[MarkD]

Braun could learn something from the campaign tactics of Russ Feingold in 1992, per the story I posted about before on this thread, on August 2.

Run a positive campaign about himself, never mentioning Messer or Rokita except to point out the fact that they are running extremely negative campaigns against each other.