He will join Mary Fallin in the history books of people who claimed to be pro-life, but passed on their chance to be the one to get Roe overturned. Sad!
This needed to be vetoed for strategic reasons. The challenge to Roe can't succeed when there is still a pro-choice majority on the Supreme Court.
By the time it comes to them, they might have went from 5-3 to 4-5.
I would prefer not placing any bets on judicial retirement.
Don't rely on Justice Kennedy being consistent and predictable. Sometimes I wonder if the way he decides a case depends on which side of the bed he gets up on. Back in 1992, while handling the case of
Planned Parenthood v. Casey, Kennedy flipped on the abortion issue. Even his own clerks thought he was going to vote with the conservatives, and thus
Roe was going to be overturned that year. When Kennedy decided to vote with O'Connor and Souter and to not overturn
Roe, the clerks started serenading him with the theme music from the TV show
Flipper. (Source: Prof. Mark Tushnet's book "A Court Divided," published in 2005.)
Kennedy is a "flipper" too about "gay rights." He's been in favor of "gay equality" a few times without ever having said that the Equal Protection Clause
always requires equal treatment for gay people. He's been trying to avoid saying that. But over 30 years ago, when he was on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, he wrote an opinion upholding the federal government's prerogative to ban openly gay people from the military. And he has voted with the conservative wing of the Court to say that the First Amendment protects the right of the Boy Scouts of America to exclude gays from being scoutmasters.